As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, political discussions and strategic realignments are gaining momentum.
Central to these developments are President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and key opposition figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso.
The fallout from the 2023 elections, which saw a divided opposition fail to unseat Tinubu, has sparked growing calls for unity among opposition parties.
Opposition Leaders Seek Unity to Challenge APC
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Ibrahim Abdullahi, Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has highlighted the need for a stronger coalition to mount a formidable challenge against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
He noted that had the PDP managed internal conflicts better, both Obi and Kwankwaso might have remained within the party, potentially altering the outcome of the 2023 election.
Despite these efforts, some analysts remain skeptical about the opposition’s ability to dethrone Tinubu.
Activist lawyer Deji Adeyanju warned that even a united opposition might struggle against Tinubu’s entrenched political influence and the existing electoral system.
Beyond Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso, political strategists have suggested a broader coalition, urging former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and Nasir El-Rufai to align with opposition forces.
Former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman, has argued that setting aside personal ambitions in favor of strengthening a competitive opposition party is essential to breaking the APC’s stronghold.
APC’s Confidence and Strategic Caution
Within the APC, confidence in retaining power is tempered by awareness of the opposition’s potential to regroup. The party maintains that Tinubu’s administration will continue delivering on its promises, thereby solidifying public support.
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Ahmed S. Aruwa, Kano APC Publicity Secretary, dismissed opposition concerns, arguing that Atiku Abubakar’s political career is nearing its end.
He also questioned Kwankwaso’s relevance, asserting that his recent meeting with former Minister Rauf Aregbesola was merely an attempt to remain politically relevant.
“Kwankwaso has no political party at the moment,” Aruwa claimed. “His popularity in the North is overrated and cannot compare to Tinubu’s economic reforms and fight against insecurity.”
Electoral Uncertainty and Economic Concerns
Political analysts remain divided on the likely outcome of the 2027 election. Abdullahi Abba, a political analyst, believes Atiku’s extensive political experience and cross-regional alliances position him as a strong contender.
However, he warned that PDP internal dynamics, particularly ambitions from figures such as Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, could create factional disputes that undermine Atiku’s chances.
Dr. Sa’id Dukawa, a political scientist at Bayero University Kano, emphasized that the 2027 election would be a fiercely contested battle, with alliances and defections shaping the political landscape.
“Cross-carpeting and political alliances are at an all-time high. Politicians are preparing early, and 2027 will be a game-changer,” Dukawa stated.
Despite intense political maneuvering, ordinary Nigerians remain focused on governance outcomes rather than party affiliations. Many citizens demand a government that can effectively address insecurity, economic instability, and corruption.
Umar Ibrahim Umar, Executive Director of War Against Injustice, warned that Tinubu’s economic reforms could jeopardize his re-election bid.
“The economic reforms have caused more hardship than relief. Subsequent policies have not been any friendlier,” Umar noted.
Public Sentiment and Voter Apathy
Among Nigeria’s electorate, economic hardship remains a significant factor in political considerations. In the North, many voters remain undecided, with some contemplating abstention due to economic distress.
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Commercial tricycle operators (Keke Napep riders) in Kano expressed frustration over rising fuel costs, which have impacted their daily earnings.
One rider lamented, “Now a liter of petrol goes for over ₦1,000, and it doesn’t even last.”
Despite APC’s intensified campaign efforts and reports of food prices stabilizing in some Northern markets, skepticism about Tinubu’s re-election remains widespread.
As opposition parties strategize and alliances form, the political landscape is rapidly evolving, with Nigerians awaiting a clearer picture of who will emerge as the most viable alternative in 2027.
