As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 general elections, a former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, has expressed strong reservations about the chances of Labour Party’s Peter Obi and PDP’s Atiku Abubakar in winning the support of Northern voters.
In a recent interview, Sani argued that President Bola Tinubu still stands the best chance of securing bloc votes from the North, despite the passing of his political ally, former President Muhammadu Buhari.
According to Sani, Northerners do not trust Peter Obi enough to believe he would serve only one term in office if elected. He pointed to past political precedents, such as former President Goodluck Jonathan’s failed one-term promise, as a basis for northern skepticism.
“The North cannot trust Peter Obi that he will do one term. You would recall President Jonathan pledged to do one term but reneged,” Sani said.
He further stated that despite Buhari’s death, his supporters are still loyal to his political legacy and are unlikely to abandon the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party that brought him to power.
“Buhari made it clear before his death that he remained committed to the APC. His supporters, given their loyalty, would not betray him—even in death,” he noted.
Sani believes that Tinubu’s existing mandate, combined with Buhari’s lingering influence and the North’s interest in allowing a southern president complete two terms, positions the incumbent president favorably for re-election.
“Unless President Tinubu performs woefully—which I don’t expect—the North would prefer to allow him complete the southern tenure. He is the only southern candidate with just one term left to go,” he added.
Commenting on the newly formed opposition coalition led by figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and others under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) umbrella, Sani dismissed the possibility of the coalition unseating Tinubu.
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“Whether the coalition fields Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Amaechi, the outcome will likely be the same. The political dynamics do not favor them,” he said.
Sani also criticized the opposition for lacking a clear and distinct policy direction, stating that many of their proposed reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidy, mirror those of the Tinubu administration.
“During the last campaign, Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu all supported fuel subsidy removal. After the election, Tinubu secured 8 million votes, Atiku 7 million, and Obi 6.1 million. That shows Nigerians accepted subsidy removal as inevitable. The coalition has not told us what it will do differently.”
On potential powerbrokers in 2027, Sani differentiated between former governors Nasir El-Rufai and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, stating that El-Rufai, though brilliant, lacks the grassroots appeal that Kwankwaso enjoys.
“El-Rufai is an intelligent technocrat but not a street politician. Kwankwaso, on the other hand, has a strong hold in Kano and may likely join APC, where he could add significant political value,” Sani predicted.
In summary, Sani emphasized that the 2027 presidential race will likely remain in Tinubu’s favor unless a significant shift in public opinion or political strategy emerges within the opposition. He stressed that for now, the coalition lacks the national trust, northern appeal, and policy clarity required to defeat the incumbent president.