1.Boko Haram may collapse finally–or meld into ISWAP
Since Abubakar Shekau was thrown out of the parent terror group which rebranded as ISWAP in 2016, his life had been in danger. His own group Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) has been in constant clash with ISWAP, and thousands of Shekau’s followers were leaving him because of his high-handedness. Shekau advocated killig Christians and infidel Muslims.
Now that Shekau is dead, many of his followers may troop to join moderate ISWAP or leave Jihadism for good.
2. ISWAP is now in control of the Sambisa Forest
ISWAP stormed Sambisa forest to launch the attack that caught Shekau in bad position. The forest migh just be the last part of the territory Shekau controlled, which has now fallen to ISWAP.
When they broke up, ISWAP operations dominated southern Borno and northern Yobe and some areas around the Lake Chad while Boko Haram dominated the rest. But the two groups trespassed and clashed constantly Bama, Banki, Ngom, Tungunshe, and Maiduguri.
3. More problem for the Nigerian Counter Insurgency strategy
ISWAP leadership is largely invisible and a little democratic with its Shura council, unlike Boko Haram which Shekau turned to his personal enterprise and show business with its numerous videos. Musab Al Barnawi, Ba Idrisa are the known past leaders of ISWAP, in that order. Bana Duguri, the ISWAP commander who led the Tuesday attack that killed Shekau is not a well-known name.
The ISWAP style thus presents Nigeria and the Sahel country a COIN problem: tracking and pinning which atrocities to which group.
4. Islamization assumes new dimension
Because of Shekau’s ruthlessness to Christians and Muslims, the Nigerian terrorist problem has been difficult to name as Islamic Jihad. If the urrent development signifies the end of Shekau’s Boko Haram and ideologies, then more attacks will pour in on Christians. And those who claim Islamization agenda will have stronger talking points.