The African Democratic Congress (ADC), recently adopted as the flagship platform by a coalition of opposition leaders working to unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027, has vowed to make significant gains in the by-elections to be held nationwide today.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is conducting the polls in 16 constituencies across 12 states, covering two senatorial seats, five federal constituencies, and nine state constituencies.
Key battlegrounds: Senatorial Elections: Edo Central and Anambra South; House of Representatives Seats: Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Ogun, and Oyo States; State Assemblies: Adamawa, Anambra, Kaduna (2), Kano, Kogi, Niger, Taraba, Zamfara.
Court-ordered Re-runs: Enugu South I (Enugu) and Ghari/Tsanyawa (Kano).
Many of the seats became vacant following deaths, court rulings, or resignations — including the Edo Central seat vacated by Senator Monday Okpebholo after his election as governor.
This election marks the first real test for the ADC-led opposition coalition, which features heavyweight politicians such as Interim National Chairman, Senator David Mark, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and ex-governors Peter Obi (Anambra), Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), and Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers).
Peter Obi’s Controversial Move in Anambra
Former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, stirred political controversy after being spotted campaigning for the ADC candidate in the Onitsha North 1 State Assembly by-election.
READ ALSO: Obi mobilises support for ADC candidates in Saturday bye-elections
Though Obi insists he remains loyal to the LP, his move triggered speculation of a quiet defection.
The LP’s Anambra State Chairman, Hon. Emeh Ugochukwu Emmanuel, claimed Obi acted out of frustration with INEC, alleging the commission failed to properly upload LP candidates’ details despite including the party’s logo on ballot papers.
He explained that the ADC candidate Obi campaigned for was originally supposed to run under the LP but had to switch platforms after the alleged INEC irregularity.
El-Rufai’s Double Play in Kaduna
Former Kaduna governor, Nasir El-Rufai, also raised eyebrows when he openly campaigned for ADC’s Alex Adamu in the Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency.
Despite being a member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), El-Rufai defended his action as part of the united opposition front, later urging voters in other areas to support SDP candidates in a social media video.
Security Concerns Threaten Voter Turnout
Insecurity looms large over the by-elections, especially in Anambra and Kaduna, where gunmen and bandits have continued to terrorize residents. Analysts warn that fear of attacks could suppress voter turnout, creating opportunities for manipulation.
A security source revealed: “No matter the presence of police or army, gunmen can still strike. Many residents may stay away, paving the way for ruling parties to rig in their favour.”
To counter these fears, the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, has ordered the deployment of senior officers and tactical units nationwide. Assistant Inspectors-General, Commissioners of Police, Mobile Force operatives, Special Intervention Squads, and intelligence teams are on the ground to ensure safety and credibility.
Political analysts believe today’s by-elections will serve as a litmus test for the ADC’s strength and its ability to unify Nigeria’s fragmented opposition ahead of the 2027 general elections.
With figures like Obi, Atiku, Amaechi, and El-Rufai actively campaigning, the results could either validate the coalition’s strategy or expose deep cracks within the alliance.