Ahead of the release of the June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), financial analysts forecast a marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation, moderating slightly from 22.97% in May.
Most projections place June’s inflation between 22.0% and 22.8%, supported by base effects, currency stability, and improved seasonal food supply.
While optimistic about easing inflationary pressure, experts caution that persistent food inflation, insecurity, and post-festive demand remain significant threats to price stability.
Ebo Ayodeji, Managing Director at Optimus by Afrinvest, attributes the likely decline to ongoing foreign exchange (FX) stability and subdued energy price movements.
“We anticipate a further dip in headline inflation in June, largely due to a stronger naira and relatively contained energy prices. But food inflation remains problematic, especially in violence-prone food-producing areas like Benue,” he noted.
Olaitan Sunday, MD of Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, projects a modest easing to 22.4%–22.8%, citing several interplaying factors:
With price levels already high in June 2024, the year-on-year change is statistically milder.
While rains disrupted logistics and pushed prices of perishables up, early harvests and rising imports have cushioned some of the pressure.
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The naira held steady at around N1,524/$ throughout the month, helping tame imported inflation, especially on processed goods.
“Insecurity and high transport costs continue to burden food logistics, but FX stability and restrained consumer spending are helping moderate inflation,” Sunday added.
However, Idris Adeniyi, Head of Investment at Norrenberger Pension Limited, predicts a slight uptick above 23%, citing a 35% surge in livestock prices during the Eid-el-Kabir festivities in early June.
“NBS data often captures early-month price dynamics. The post-Sallah spike in food prices likely factored into the CPI, even if the late-month fuel price bump was not,” Adeniyi said.
Similarly, logistics challenges from rainfall and bad roads added regional price volatility, especially in the food segment.
Offering a more optimistic projection, Onche Samuel, a senior executive at a Tier-1 bank, believes inflation could drop closer to 22.0%, thanks to the Central Bank’s tight monetary stance and easing in core inflation metrics.
“Elevated yields on treasury bills and marginal naira appreciation at the NAFEM window helped contain inflation in core sectors like pharmaceuticals and logistics,” he said. However, he cautioned that the rate of deceleration may be less pronounced than the previous month due to “sticky” food inflation.
Looking ahead, analysts warn that July inflation will hinge on currency movements, fuel pricing, and food supply trends. If the naira remains stable and early harvests persist, inflation could hold steady or decline further. Conversely, a sharp naira depreciation or rising fuel costs could push inflation back above 23%.
“Policymakers must remain vigilant. A fragile equilibrium exists between gains in FX management and inflationary shocks from food and fuel,” said Tolu Abayomi, a macroeconomist at MarketLine Analytics.