APC presidential primary: Meet the pretenders, contenders

As the May 30/June 1 scheduled date for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) primary to decide its presidential flag bearer draws near, the list of aspirants have continued to grow, especially in the Southwest.

According to political analysts, while APC may not have officially zoned the ticket to the South, there are expectations that the South will eventually get the ticket hence the large numbers of aspirants from the zone, coupled with the fact that the party controls five out of the six states in the South-West.

The aspirants from the zone include Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (Ogun), former House of Representatives Speaker, Dimeji Bankole (Ogun), Senator Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun), national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (Lagos) and the chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum, Dr Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti).

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The South East geopolitical zone has seven aspirants including David Umahi (Ebonyi), Dr Chris Ngige (Anambra), Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba (Imo), Orji Uzo Kalu (Abia), Senator Rochas Okorocha (Imo), Ihechukwu Dallas Chima (Abia) and Usman Iwu (Imo).

So far, only three persons have indicated interest from the South South including Ben Ayade (Cross River), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Mr Tein Jack-Rich (Rivers).

The North Central has two; Yahaya Bello (Kogi) and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim (Kwara).  The only person from the North East is Adamu Garba II (Adamawa).

Sources said the aspirants’ confidence stems from the historic alliance between the defunct CPC and the ACN, two political parties that led to the formation of the ruling APC with the support of a section of PDP and APGA ahead of the 2015 general elections.

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However, there are fears that Tinubu, Osinbajo, Fayemi, Amosun, among others have their supporters among the delegates from the zone and the implication is that at the end of the day, this might reduce the chances of the South West.

According to investigation, the South West geopolitical zone has 1,568 delegates out of the 7,800 delegates that would participate in the primaries.

The North Central had 1,278 delegates, followed by the North East with 1, 212 delegates while the South East with 838 had the least delegates for the primary.  Also, 53 delegates are going to come from the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

In terms of numerical voters’ strength, the South West comes second after the North West geopolitical zone, which has a total of 1,924 delegates.

One of our sources said early permutations favoured Tinubu to win the majority of the votes from the South West.

The national leader of APC is expected to have bloc votes from Lagos and Osun states, as well as over 60% from Oyo State. He is also expected to get substantial votes from delegates from Ekiti and Ondo states.

Osinbajo, it was learnt is primed to get bloc votes from Ogun delegates following his endorsement by Governor Dapo Abiodun and critical stakeholders from his state of origin.

He is expected to have a fair showing in Oyo State where delegates loyal to the Chairman, Senate Committee on Local Content, Senator Teslim Kolawole Folarin, are backing his ambition.

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The Professor of Law, who is expected to struggle for delegate votes in Lagos, is expected not to do too poorly in Osun with the support of the camp loyal to Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola.

However, if Fayemi makes it to the primary, Ekiti delegates are expected to queue behind the governor, jeopardising Osinbajo’s chances in the state.

Analysts predict a split vote in Ondo State for Osinbajo and Tinubu, especially if Fayemi, a bosom friend of the state governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, fails to mount a serious challenge in the coming days.

Meanwhile, both are banking on support from the North, where no major aspirant has shown interest in picking the party’s ticket.