Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surged to 24.23% in March 2025, up from 23.18% recorded in February, according to preliminary data obtained ahead of the official release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The sharp uptick reflects intensifying economic pressures, particularly on household incomes, as prices of food, transportation, energy, and other essential goods continue to climb.
Though the NBS has not yet published the full details on its official platforms, sources within the bureau confirmed the new inflation figure, signaling another month of economic strain for millions of Nigerians.
Food inflation continues to be the most significant contributor, exacerbated by persistent insecurity in farming regions, supply chain disruptions, and the weakening naira.
Transport and energy costs have also surged due to fuel subsidy removal, higher crude oil prices, and exchange rate volatility.
Rising import costs driven by currency depreciation have pushed up prices of consumer goods and industrial inputs.
The increase in inflation further erodes the purchasing power of citizens, especially in low- and middle-income brackets, with many households now spending a larger share of their income on food and basic needs.
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“This inflation trajectory is unsustainable for the average Nigerian,” said Dr. Kemi Adeyemi, an economist at the Lagos Business School. “Without significant interventions in food production and energy stability, inflation will continue to outpace wage growth.”
The latest inflation numbers are likely to influence the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy stance.
With headline inflation now well above the bank’s medium-term target range, analysts anticipate a possible further hike in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to rein in inflation and defend the naira.
However, such a move could further tighten liquidity in the real sector, affecting credit availability and economic growth.
“The CBN is caught between controlling inflation and stimulating growth. This inflation number adds more weight to the argument for tighter monetary policy,” noted Uche Okonkwo, Head of Research at Afrinvest.
If current inflationary pressures persist, especially with fuel prices, FX instability, and food supply challenges, Nigeria could be on course to hit or exceed 25% inflation by mid-2025, barring any decisive policy response or positive external shocks.
The full inflation report from the NBS, which typically breaks down the data by state, urban/rural trends, and sub-indices like food and core inflation, is expected to be published shortly.