Football pundits see Chelsea moving up in their Champions’ League group with a big win at Ajax on Wednesday, noting that the odds for the match says it’s certainly possible, but not likely.
Chelsea is away to Ajax, which explains why the number is so close to even. Ajax last year would have been definite favorites against this Chelsea squad, but with a few superstars leaving Ajax over the summer they are closer to this year’s Chelsea in overall level of talent.
Ajax are currently sitting atop Champions’ League Group H with six points. Chelsea and Valencia are tied with three points each. Ajax have a much larger goal differential than both.
Unless the Blues win by three or more goals, even a victory will not take them to the top of the group. Depending on the goal differential between Valencia and Ajax, Chelsea could win and still be in third place in the group.
The gambling public knows the Blues will be pushing harder than Ajax to get the win. Ajax can afford a loss or draw much more than Chelsea can.
The spread says a lot on this match. I expected Ajax to be bigger favorites since they are at home, and Chelsea have some injuries along with no players rested over the weekend.
The over / under for total goals scored in the match has recently gone up to three. If you peek at the money line, Ajax are slight favorites at +137 to Chelsea’s +203 (which means for every 100 bet you’d win either $137 or $203 depending if you bet Ajax or Chelsea, respectively).
What picture starts to take shape from all these odds? They’re telling me the match will have fewer than three goals and end in a draw.
Chelsea and Ajax have a ton of young players, and managers who aren’t predictable themselves. Frank Lampard and Erik Ten Haag change tactics before, after or even during a match.
Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte were examples of coaches who are easy to predict: they would get the lead, then shut up shop and look for the clean sheet. Maurizio Sarri was not as easy, mostly because there was a good chance he would win or get blown out – very little in between.