Nigerians are bracing for another surge in the cost of premium motor spirit (PMS) after Dangote Refinery announced a fresh increase in its gantry price, marking the fourth upward review in March 2026 amid escalating global oil market tensions.
In a notice issued on Friday, the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery disclosed that its ex-depot price had been raised from N1,175 per litre to N1,245 per litre. The new pricing structure is scheduled to take effect from Saturday, March 21, 2026.
“The gantry price increased from N1,175 per litre to N1,245 per litre,” the company stated, attributing the adjustment to rising crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly the intensifying conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
As of Saturday morning, Brent crude was trading at approximately $112 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $98 per barrel—figures that have significantly influenced global fuel pricing.
The latest development was confirmed by Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Natural Oil and Gas Suppliers Association of Nigeria, who noted that the hike would inevitably translate to higher pump prices nationwide.
With Dangote Refinery having adjusted its petrol price multiple times this month—from N774 to N875, then N995, N1,175, and now N1,245 per litre—fuel marketers are expected to revise retail prices upward to reflect the new cost.
Industry projections suggest petrol could now sell between N1,331 and N1,400 per litre in cities such as Abuja, up from the N1,261 to N1,330 range recorded on Friday.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicates that the refinery accounted for approximately 61 percent of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply in February 2026, delivering about 39.6 million litres out of a total 64.9 million litres consumed nationwide.
READ ALSO: Fears of monopoly rise as Dangote controls N14.4tn petrol market
This dominant supply position implies that the latest price adjustment will have widespread impact across the country.
Energy experts say the increase reflects broader global market realities rather than domestic policy decisions. Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, described the hike as an inevitable outcome of rising crude oil prices in a deregulated market environment.
“Fuel prices are closely tied to global crude oil dynamics. What we are witnessing is consistent with how a liberalized market operates,” he said, noting that local refining does not insulate Nigeria from international price volatility.
According to him, refiners must factor in opportunity costs, foreign exchange exposure, financing obligations, and future risks when determining prices, regardless of whether crude is sourced locally or internationally.
He emphasized that Nigeria’s transition from a subsidy-driven regime to a market-based pricing system, though challenging, is necessary for long-term sustainability. He also urged consumers to adapt by embracing energy efficiency measures, including carpooling and gradual transition to alternative fuels such as gas.
Similarly, Godwin Oyedokun, a Professor of Accounting and Finance at Lead City University, linked the price surge directly to global oil market disruptions fueled by geopolitical tensions.
“The increase in petrol price to about N1,245 per litre reflects a deeper global crisis rather than a purely domestic decision,” he said, warning that Nigeria remains highly vulnerable to international oil price shocks despite improved local refining capacity.
Oyedokun noted that factors such as dollar-denominated crude pricing, exchange rate volatility, and the deregulated downstream sector amplify the transmission of global shocks into domestic inflation, raising both household living costs and business operating expenses.
He advised the government to adopt targeted interventions instead of reintroducing blanket fuel subsidies, suggesting temporary relief for critical sectors like transportation and agriculture, alongside measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market and reduce levies on petroleum products.
Looking ahead, both experts stressed the need for structural reforms, including increased crude oil production, enhanced refining competition, and investment in alternative energy and mass transit systems.
They also urged Nigerians to adjust expectations in line with current economic realities, noting that the era of artificially low fuel prices has ended, with global market forces now playing a decisive role in determining domestic petrol costs.