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Ethiopia faces grave uncertainty as civil war widens

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The United Nations political affairs envoy, Rosemary DiCarlo has warned that Ethiopia faces a grave uncertainty in the future following escalation of the civil war in the northern part of the country.

Since the beginning of August, the conflict had spread from Tigray to the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.

DiCarlo, who disclosed this while addressing the UN Security Council, said no one can predict what continued fighting and insecurity will bring.

“But, let me be clear, what is certain is that the risk of Ethiopia descending into a widening Civil War is only too real. The conflict in the northern region of Tigray has reached catastrophic proportions.

“The fighting places, the future of the country and its people as well as the stability of the wider Horn of Africa region are in grave uncertainty in recent days.”

The Ethiopian government’s conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began a year ago and has accelerated in recent days.

A nationwide state of emergency was declared last week and residents of the capital were told to be ready to take up arms to defend residential areas.

Meanwhile, rebels fighting the government has played down reports that they would face a hostile population or cause a “bloodbath” if they advanced into the capital city.

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Fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and their allies in the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have claimed several cities in recent weeks and have not ruled out marching on Addis Ababa.

The government, which has denied the capital is under threat, has nevertheless declared a state of emergency and local authorities have asked residents to organise to defend the city.

“The story that the population in Addis is vehemently opposed to us is absolutely overstated,” TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda told AFP in an interview.

“Addis is a melting pot. People with all kinds of interests live in Addis. The claim that Addis will turn into a bloodbath if we enter Addis is absolutely ridiculous.”

While the rebels would enter Addis Ababa to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, he said taking the capital was not “an objective”.

He also said the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia’s politics for nearly 30 years, had no desire to take back power.

The TPLF overthrew the Marxist Derg regime in 1991 and ruled until 2018 when Abiy came to power.

Last weekend, the TPLF said it had taken two strategic cities in Amhara region, months after its fighters retook their Tigray bastion.

In November 2020, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military offensive against the TPLF, which had long run the northern region of Tigray and was a major player in Ethiopia’s national politics.

Tensions began to simmer when Abiy came to power in 2018 and sought to reduce its influence.

Since the beginning of August, the conflict had spread from Tigray to the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.

 

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