The political stability of France is in question after Prime Minister François Bayrou called a confidence vote for September 8, high stakes move prompted by plans for deep budget cuts. With a minority government since last December, Bayrou’s decision is a risky gambit to gain support for his fiscal policies.
He warned that France is at a “worrying and therefore decisive moment” and that doing nothing would be even riskier.
Bayrou’s proposal to make almost €44 billion in budget cuts has been met with widespread opposition. The “Bloquons tout” Block everything movement, which started on social media and has gained backing from unions and the far left, has called for nationwide protests.
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The financial markets have reacted with concern. France’s CAC-40 share index dropped by 1.59% on Monday and another 2% on Tuesday morning. France’s finance minister, Eric Lombard, stressed the need for a “budget for recovery for 2026.”
The prime minister’s position looks bleak. His government lacks sufficient support in the National Assembly, with opposition parties from across the political spectrum including the National Rally, Socialists, Greens, and France Unbowed—all vowing to vote against him.
Leaders of the far-right National Rally party were swift to condemn the move. President Jordan Bardella said Bayrou had declared “the end of his government,” and leader Marine Le Pen suggested that only dissolving parliament would allow France to choose its destiny.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure appeared to seal Bayrou’s fate, stating, “it’s unthinkable the Socialists will give François Bayrou a vote of confidence.”
He argued that Bayrou’s proposed budget, which lacks public support, is the real source of political instability.
This situation echoes the recent past, as Bayrou was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron after his predecessor, Michel Barnier, lost a confidence vote over similar spending cuts last December.
Despite the overwhelming opposition, Prime Minister François Bayrou seems to be holding firm on his plan for deep budget cuts, even as the vote of confidence looms.
Unless he can sway his political opponents, his government’s survival is in serious doubt.
The finance minister, while acknowledging room for negotiation, remains committed to the €44 billion in cuts. Bayrou’s budget also controversially proposes eliminating two public holidays, which could be an area for compromise.
Bayrou’s decision to call the confidence vote came as a surprise to his own cabinet, with ministers given little notice. Nevertheless, his move was publicly supported by some colleagues. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin called the prime minister’s action “extremely courageous…and very democratic.”
The announcement was made after Bayrou met with President Emmanuel Macron, ensuring the president was fully briefed on the plan. This suggests that while Bayrou is taking a political risk, he has the president’s backing.
What’s Next for France?
If the government does collapse, President Macron will face a critical choice. He could:
Leave Bayrou in a caretaker role.
Appoint a new prime minister.
Call for new elections.
This political instability is a direct result of Macron’s decision to call snap elections in 2024, which left France with a minority government. With Macron’s term scheduled to run until 2027, the political future of France hangs in the balance.