With only days remaining before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll reveals a nail-bitingly close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Both candidates are tied at 47% among registered voters, a dramatic shift from previous polling that showed Harris holding a slight lead since her campaign launch in July.
The survey highlights that, even among likely voters, the contest remains in a deadlock. Harris and Trump are each polling at 48% among likely voters when all candidates are considered, and they are tied in a two-way race among registered voters.
In battleground states, Trump holds a narrow edge, but on a national level, the race appears closer than any in recent U.S. history, perhaps even tighter than the infamous 1960 and 2000 elections.
This year, the enthusiasm factor could play a decisive role in voter turnout, with 50% of Harris supporters expressing “extreme enthusiasm” compared to 46% of Trump supporters. Notably, this represents a dip in enthusiasm compared to 2020, where 57% of voters expressed extreme eagerness to vote.
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Analysts believe this enthusiasm gap could benefit Harris if turnout is low, as her core supporters seem more resolute about casting their ballots.
Another crucial factor is the preference among late-deciding voters. Harris currently leads by 70% to 26% among voters who made their choice recently, with 4% of Trump supporters still considering a change of heart compared to only 1% of Harris backers.
This shift among undecided voters could be significant in an election as close as this.
Despite this, Trump has made gains in his favorability metrics. Negative perceptions of him—such as being seen as “dishonest,” “chaotic,” or “weird”—have slightly decreased since the September debate, while some voters now view him as “focused” and “unifying.”
Harris, however, has seen a small increase in unfavorable perceptions, with some voters now perceiving her as “weak” or “chaotic.”
On specific issues, Harris maintains a narrow lead among voters who prioritize abortion and immigration, while Trump has gained traction on economic and social issues.
For instance, Trump’s stance on tariffs garners support from voters concerned with protecting American jobs, despite warnings from economists about potential inflation impacts.
As Election Day approaches, voter confidence in the electoral process diverges along party lines. While 77% of Democrats believe this year’s election will be “free and fair,” only 25% of Republicans feel the same. Furthermore, fewer Republicans express confidence in accurate vote counting compared to 2020.
If Trump loses, only 23% of voters believe he will concede, indicating lingering doubts about acceptance of the election outcome.
The intensity of the race reflects the high stakes perceived by both camps. Nearly half of both Harris and Trump supporters see the outcome as crucial for the nation’s future, with many believing the country may not recover if their candidate loses.
With early voting already underway and enthusiasm levels fluctuating, the outcome of this election remains unpredictable, potentially shaping up to be one of the closest in modern U.S. history.