Iran is making urgent diplomatic moves across the Middle East to seek ways to reduce Israel’s expected retaliation after Tehran’s missile strike earlier this month.
Sources familiar with the situation reveal that Iran is increasingly nervous about Israel’s potential military response, particularly its concerns about possible strikes on its nuclear and oil infrastructure.
These diplomatic efforts reflect Iran’s anxiety, heightened by the uncertainty surrounding whether the United States can influence Israel to refrain from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.
Tehran is also feeling vulnerable due to the weakened position of Hezbollah, its key regional proxy militia, which has suffered significant setbacks from Israeli military operations in recent weeks.
The U.S. has been in close consultations with Israel about how it plans to respond to Iran’s October 1 attack, but tensions remain high.
President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging him to ensure that any Israeli retaliation is “proportional” and cautioning against targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure.
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Biden’s appeal marks the first direct conversation between the two leaders in almost two months, underscoring the gravity of the situation.
Despite these discussions, Israel has yet to give assurances that it won’t strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, issued a stark warning on Wednesday, stating, “Our strike will be powerful, precise, and above all – surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened.”
This rhetoric has alarmed regional actors and global powers alike, with the United States deeply concerned that continued escalation could lead to a broader regional conflict that might pull the U.S. into direct confrontation.
The situation has also unsettled key Gulf allies, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, who have expressed concerns to the U.S. about the potential fallout from an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities.
The economic and environmental consequences could ripple across the region, severely disrupting stability.
An Arab diplomat commented, “While these nations do not wish to involve themselves in the conflict, they are mindful of the widespread ramifications that an Israeli-Iranian confrontation could have.”
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have made it clear that they will not permit Israel to use their airspace to launch strikes on Iran. Jordan, too, has vowed to protect its airspace from any unauthorized intrusion, further complicating potential Israeli military operations.
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Iran’s diplomatic outreach has focused heavily on Saudi Arabia, with Iranian officials engaging in high-level meetings in an effort to secure Riyadh’s help in defusing the crisis.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has met with Saudi officials three times in the last month, aiming to leverage Saudi influence with Washington to prevent a military strike.
Araghchi was quoted as saying that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu “wants a war” to maintain his political power and destabilize the region.
However, despite Tehran’s best efforts, there is no guarantee that Saudi Arabia or other Gulf nations will actively defend Iran if an Israeli attack occurs.
According to regional experts, Gulf countries are likely to maintain a neutral stance, preferring to stay on the sidelines rather than becoming embroiled in a direct conflict.
Analysts note that both Israel and Iran are carefully weighing their next moves, fully aware that the consequences of a miscalculated response could be devastating.
Dr. Ibrahim Hassan, a Middle East security expert, remarked, “The situation is extremely delicate. Israel is determined to send a strong message, but it also knows that a full-scale war could engulf the entire region.
Similarly, Iran doesn’t want to be drawn into a broader conflict but feels compelled to respond to Israeli actions.”
Hassan further explained that Tehran’s reliance on proxy forces like Hezbollah has been a critical part of its strategy, but the militia’s weakening under Israeli bombardment poses a significant problem.
“Iran’s diminished influence through Hezbollah limits its regional leverage and complicates its military and diplomatic calculus,” he said.
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The Biden administration is also facing challenges in managing the crisis, with U.S. influence over Israeli military decisions appearing to weaken.
While the U.S. has successfully narrowed the gap in discussions with Israel, Washington remains skeptical about the transparency of Israeli decision-making. A senior U.S. official voiced concerns over whether Israel is sharing all relevant information about its plans, casting doubt on the effectiveness of U.S. diplomacy.
“Israel has increasingly acted independently, especially in recent operations in Gaza and Lebanon,” noted Dr. Sarah Levitt, a geopolitical analyst. “This trend complicates Washington’s ability to restrain Israeli military actions that could provoke a larger regional conflict.”