Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has weighed in on fresh projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that place China and India at the centre of global economic expansion in 2026, describing the trend as evidence of a significant shift in global power dynamics.
“The balance of power is changing,” Musk wrote on X while reacting to an IMF chart ranking countries by their contribution to global real GDP growth next year.
According to the IMF data, China is projected to account for 26.6 per cent of global real GDP growth in 2026, maintaining its position as the world’s largest growth engine. India follows closely with a 17 per cent contribution.
Together, the two Asian economies are expected to drive 43.6 per cent of global economic growth, highlighting the rising dominance of the Asia-Pacific region in shaping the world economy.
The United States ranks third on the list, with a projected 9.9 per cent contribution to global growth. Other emerging economies also feature prominently, including Indonesia at 3.8 per cent, Türkiye at 2.2 per cent, and both Nigeria and Brazil at 1.5 per cent each. Germany rounds out the top ten with a contribution of 0.9 per cent.
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Musk’s remarks echo a growing consensus among economists and policymakers that global economic leadership is gradually shifting away from traditional Western powers toward Asia and parts of the Global South.
His comments also come amid his recent engagements with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscoring his public interest in India’s rapidly expanding economy and technology ecosystem.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF slightly upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.3 per cent for 2026 and 3.2 per cent for 2027.
The Fund attributed the outlook to sustained technology investments, supportive financial conditions and private-sector resilience, even as countries navigate changing trade policies.
The IMF also projected a continued easing of global inflationary pressures, although it noted that inflation in the United States is expected to return to target levels more slowly than in some other economies.
Despite the relatively stable outlook, the Fund warned of multiple downside risks. These include the possibility of an abrupt reassessment of technology-driven growth expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions.
The IMF urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers, protect price and financial stability, and push ahead with structural reforms to sustain long-term growth.
The report further cautioned that intensifying trade tensions could prolong uncertainty and dampen global economic activity, while domestic political instability and international conflicts could disrupt financial markets, supply chains and commodity prices.
It also noted that high public debt levels and elevated fiscal deficits could place upward pressure on long-term interest rates, tightening global financial conditions.