Naira gains against dollar but fragile amid U.S interest rate decision

The Nigerian naira has once again surpassed a key black market resistance level, settling at N1,170 against the greenback, as the US Fed prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today.

Nigeria failed to take advantage of the favourable opportunity to attack the global oil market.

The geopolitical instability that has hit Eastern Europe since February 2022 has caused adverse consequences for the economy and the lack of dollar liquidity in central bank vaults to keep the naira below the 1,000 naira/$ mark on the black market.

However, this has led the CBN to take unorthodox measures to support the local currency in the foreign exchange market. Currency traders are re-evaluating their strategies following reports that FG plans to digitize forex transactions and discourage speculative demand and cash hoarding.

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Sources of FX liquidity remain largely elusive. Nigeria’s largest source of dollar revenue is from oil sales, but Nigeria produces less than OPEC’s daily quota of 1.8 million barrels per day, which is decreasing month by month despite rising oil prices.

Additionally, recent geopolitical developments, including conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe, have increased demand for the dollar.

Market speculators believe demand for the US dollar will skyrocket as investors seek refuge in safe-haven currencies during this period of increased uncertainty.

For the second meeting in a row, the Fed is most likely to maintain its policy rate at 5 points 25 to 5 points.

The language in the statement about the likelihood of further tightening as well as Chairman Powell’s remarks about the policy outlook could increase volatility later today US Fed Chairman Powell, while earlier acknowledging the recent tightening of financial conditions in the world’s largest economy, left open the possibility of raising interest rates.

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Additionally, strong U.S. economic data and the perception of higher long-term interest rates have triggered a return to rate cuts in 2025.

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That said, for consolidation to be near This translates into a reversal, the US exception – the relatively better performance of the US economy compared to the rest of the world and a hawkish Fed – should reverse course. Until then, it may be too early to conclude that the dollar has peaked.

Rising US government debt yields have added to the strength of the US dollar, leading to an increase in the value of the dollar

Price actions highlighted that the US dollar index’s rally appears to be stretched market diversity, as measured by fractal dimensions, appears to be low as the DXY Index hit a multi-month high last month.

On Tuesday, the dollar index declined for the third straight session, testing the 106-support level.

Thus far, additional sidelined trade appears to be the most likely scenario going forward for the index.

The theme’s breakout suggests a possible move to the weekly high at 106.89, which is just ahead of the 2023 high of 107.34 and before the round level at 107

Nevertheless, when interest rate differentials change against the U.S. dollar. markets predict that the naira will strengthen against the dollar in the second half of 2019 and into 2025.

Even so, the overall impact of the greater U. S. The above statement is still a tall order given Treasury yields and the hawkish Fed.