Global crude oil markets experienced a sharp surge at the close of trading on March 20, 2026, as Brent Crude Futures jumped 8.22% to $112 per barrel.
The sudden increase has intensified pressure on energy markets worldwide and sparked concerns over the potential impact on Nigeria’s economic stability.
The surge represents a more than 53 per cent jump in March alone and an over 83 per cent increase since the start of the year, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran War.
Data from petroleumprice.ng shows that Dangote Petroleum Refinery has adjusted petrol prices five times in March in response to global market dynamics.
At the start of the month, the refinery raised its gantry price from N774 per litre on March 2 to N874, followed by successive increases to N1,050, N1,175, N1,245, and most recently N1,275 per litre. Coastal prices rose from N1,512,648 to N1,646,748 per metric tonne.
The price adjustments reflect steep percentage increases: the initial N100 rise to N874 per litre marked 12.9 per cent, the jump to N1,050 was 20.1per cent, the increase to N1,175 was 11.9 per cent, and the March 20 adjustment to N1,245 represented a 6 per cent increase.
In Lagos, MRS stations raised pump prices by N100 to N1,367 per litre, while in Abuja, Ranoil, Empire Energy, and AA Rano increased prices to N1,440, N1,430, and N1,370 respectively.
Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, at the 2026 Economic Summit in Lagos said that the rising fuel prices are already feeding into transportation costs and broader consumer prices.
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“Every one percent increase in petrol prices leads to a 0.079 per cent rise in transportation costs and inflation,” he said. “With petrol up about 42 per cent this month, we could see an additional three to four percentage points in inflation over the next two to three months.”
He warned that the renewed price pressures may force the central bank to adopt a cautious stance. “If inflation rises this way, further rate cuts are unlikely. The CBN may instead hold rates steady, similar to the US Federal Reserve, until inflation risks subside.”
Transport and logistics costs have risen about 20 per cent, adding pressure to businesses already contending with high operating expenses, weak demand, and exchange-rate volatility.
Food inflation is just above 12 per cent year-on-year and accelerating, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, further squeezing household budgets.
“Brent crude breaking past $93 per barrel earlier this month signaled escalating supply concerns,” said Dr. Adebayo Olufemi. “The current rally threatens to feed into domestic inflation in countries like Nigeria that remain dependent on imported refined fuels.”
For Nigeria, the surge is a double-edged sword. Higher crude prices can boost government revenues, increase foreign exchange inflows, and improve fiscal stability. “If managed well, the spike in oil prices could strengthen budget implementation and the naira,” said Prof. Kemi Adeyemi.
“Transportation and logistics costs are already rising,” said Mr. Tunde Balogun. “This will ripple across food, manufacturing, and services, placing additional strain on households and slowing economic growth.”