Nigeria’s crude oil production declined marginally to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd recorded in November, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The figures show that Africa’s largest oil producer has now fallen short of its OPEC-assigned production quota for the fifth consecutive month, underlining persistent output challenges despite ongoing reforms in the country’s upstream oil and gas sector.
OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly production figures for 2025 further highlight a steady decline over the year: 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter, 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter, 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter and about 1.42 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
Industry analysts say the trend reflects deep-rooted structural and operational constraints that continue to limit Nigeria’s crude oil production capacity.
OPEC compiles its production data using two methods—direct communication from member countries and estimates from secondary sources, including independent energy intelligence agencies.
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While Nigeria’s output declined based on figures submitted through direct communication, secondary sources painted a more optimistic picture.
According to secondary source estimates cited by OPEC, Nigeria produced about 1.5 million bpd in December, representing a 1.35 per cent increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November.
Despite the shortfall, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer during the period, ahead of Libya, which produced an estimated 1.37 million bpd in December.
At the broader OPEC level, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, representing a month-on-month decline of 238,000 bpd, based on secondary source data.
Analysts warn that sustained underperformance against OPEC quotas limits the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher global oil prices, especially at a time of mounting fiscal pressures and persistent foreign exchange shortages.
Speaking on the development, energy economist Dr. Kelvin Emmanuel said Nigeria’s inability to consistently meet its quota reflects long-standing issues such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, aging infrastructure and underinvestment in new production.
“While there have been improvements in security around critical assets, the reality is that years of deferred investment cannot be reversed overnight. Nigeria still has a credibility gap in its upstream sector,” he said.
Similarly, oil and gas analyst Mrs. Ijeoma Nwankwo noted that the production gap raises concerns about Nigeria’s readiness to scale output even as OPEC gradually relaxes supply restrictions.
“If Nigeria cannot hit its quota when global supply is being managed, it raises questions about how quickly the country can ramp up production when quotas are loosened or removed,” she said.