If the heightened insecurity in Nigeria has led to anything in recent times, it is the spreading and deepening of uncertainty in the polity. This trend assumed a fresh crescendo by end-October 2025, when the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump, designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC).
By this designation, due to alleged Christian persecution, Nigeria joined many other countries in Asia, Middle East/Africa, Americas, and Europe similarly designated by the U.S. Some of them include: China, North Korea, Burma (Myanmar), Eritrea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Others are: Cuba, Nicaragua, and Russia, etc.
Surprisingly, for Nigeria, rather than dampening the spate of insecurity in the land, Trump’s pronouncement would appear to have triggered the deterioration of the already bad security situation in the country. Terrorists of various hews, kidnappers, bandits, brigands, ritual killers, armed robbers have been having a field day in virtually every part of Nigeria for about a month now.
The activities of these criminals have come to pose an existential threat, such that broad swathes of the Nigerian territory are (widely) believed to have been seized by the bandits and terrorists. In point of fact, terrorism and banditry have assumed ludicrous dimensions: hardly is there any day that news of invasion and kidnapping of dozens of staff and students of some secondary and/or tertiary institutions is not out.
The bandits and terrorists seem to be getting emboldened by the day by their recent exploits; and they are becoming more daring as they spot ‘soft targets’ like school dormitories and places of worship. In a matter of weeks, a number of primary, secondary (even privately owned) and tertiary institutions have been attacked by these hoodlums, with scores of school children and staff kidnapped.
In the wake of these horrific developments, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had to cancel his earlier scheduled trips to South Africa and Angola. Tinubu was to attend the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg (November 22-23, 2025), and proceed to Luanda, Angola afterwards, for an AU-EU Summit (24-25 November, 2025).
The Johannesburg summit was a historic event, being the first G-20 meeting hosted on the African continent while the Luanda meeting marked the 25 years of partnership between the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU). Crucial as these events are, President Tinubu had to miss them because of the tension, uncertainty and worsening insecurity generated by the activities of the terrorists and bandits.
As the Chief Security Officer and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Tinubu stayed back to directly monitor security operations. Unfortunately, while scores of kidnapped school children were being rescued from the dungeon of their abductors, hundreds of others were being abducted by the hoodlums in other locations across the country.
The activities of the terrorists and bandits have gotten so bad in many communities that residents of those places are now being forced to pay levies/taxes compulsorily to the gangsters. Particularly, farmers in the ravaged places are being made to pay huge sums for permits to go to their farms and be allowed to return home.
To the shock of all, the Federal Government, apparently submitting to the wiles of the gangsters, a few days ago, ordered the closure of all ‘Unity Schools’ (Federal Government Colleges) in all the states in Northern Nigeria, effective November 21, 2025. The Minister of Education, Tunji Alausa, cited “recent security challenges” as the reason, urging the school principals to comply immediately.
Apparently taking a cue from this, a number of states in the North have also announced the closure of all schools in their domains. Even in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), schools have been shut, before the minister ordered their reopening. When or how soon these closed schools would be reopened is a matter for conjecture.
The schools closure is already a counterpoise to educational development of the North. Surely but unwittingly, the shutting of schools in that region is bound to be a setback that could further widen the gap between the North and South, educationally. Perhaps, the unfolding scenario could be a way of stifling ‘Western’ education in Northern Nigeria.
In the heat of all this, the 19 northern state governors have scheduled Saturday, November 29, 2025, to converge in Kaduna for an emergency security meeting, to address the worsening insecurity across the region. On their own part, the South-West governors met in Ibadan, Oyo state, a few days ago, where they reaffirmed support for the setting up of state police—as a veritable tool in fighting the deteriorating security situation in the land. The Southern governors have also met at Iperu, Ogun State, and unanimously endorsed State police creation.
In a similar vein, President Tinubu has called on the National Assembly to promptly review existing laws to allow states to establish their own police forces, as part of the efforts to address the rising insecurity across the country. While declaring a nationwide security emergency, President Tinubu said his “administration will support state governments which have set up security outfits to safeguard their people from the terrorists bent on disrupting our national peace.” The President has also ordered the immediate recruitment of hundreds into the police force and the armed forces.
Implicit in all of these is the ‘flight to safety’ by investors, and ‘capital flight’ to more stable and safer jurisdictions. Insecurity and uncertainty are anathema to investment inflow (both local and foreign). The consciousness of this, perhaps, largely accounted for why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), against all expectations, left intact all parameters when the committee sat on Tuesday, November 25, 2025.
For the MPC, they may have erred on the side of caution, because the hyperinflationary trend for which the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was hiked to 27.5 per cent, has significantly dropped—to only 16 per cent at end-October 2025. Today, although investors could reap positive rates of return, because of the high MPR and declining inflation, persistent insecurity, among other factors, are yet deterrents to investment inflow into Nigeria.
This, in part, could be why the CBN is reluctant to begin to loosen its tight monetary stance: a posture that has been attracting investment only mainly in financial assets (especially foreign portfolio investment, FPI). Foreign direct investment (FDI), on the other hand, has kept thinning down—because of generally inclement environment—which has led to the exit of not a few companies from Nigeria.
Today, an otherwise friendly country to Nigeria, Canada, has joined other nations in issuing travel warnings against Nigeria, in the face of the escalating insecurity. Citing “unpredictable security situation” throughout the country, Canada urged its citizens to avoid non-essential travels to Nigeria. The travel advisory named terrorism, crime, inter-communal clashes, armed attacks and kidnappings as significant risks in Nigeria.
It should be noted that Canada on November 6, 2025, halted operations at its embassy in Nigeria, and followed it up with a travel advisory. By this act, Canada has joined United States and United Kingdom. The list could be getting longer—soon. It’s like a gathering storm!
- The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos. He can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com (08033075697) SMS only