Two years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared the end of Nigeria’s decades-long fuel subsidy regime in his May 29, 2023, inauguration speech, the ripple effects are still reverberating across the nation.
The announcement — abrupt and delivered without a clear transition plan — marked one of the boldest economic moves in recent Nigerian history. While the government insisted it was a necessary step to curb fiscal waste and redirect resources to infrastructure and welfare, millions of Nigerians have found themselves grappling with skyrocketing living costs, decimated transport budgets, and widespread economic dislocation.
In the heart of Lagos, commercial driver Usman Musa shakes his head as he recounts the past two years. “Before subsidy removal, a full tank cost me N7,000. Now, I spend over N25,000 in one go,” he says. “We raised fares, but passengers complain every day. It’s harder for everyone.”
Transport fares in urban and rural areas have more than tripled since 2023. Inter-city bus operators say their customer base has shrunk dramatically, while ride-hailing services like Bolt and Uber now charge premium rates that only a few can afford. Tricycles and okada riders — once the backbone of neighborhood mobility — are disappearing from streets, priced out by fuel costs.
Civil society groups have not been silent. Ayisha Bello, a spokesperson for the Coalition for Social Accountability, said the impact of the subsidy removal has been “regressive and devastating.”
“We supported the idea of ending subsidies to stop the bleeding of public funds,” she explains. “But what we’ve seen is no meaningful reinvestment in public transport, healthcare, or education. The poor are paying the price.”
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A report by the Centre for Public Policy Analysis reveals that food inflation, now at 38.2%, is being driven largely by transportation and energy costs. The report warns that the middle class is “evaporating,” with many slipping into poverty or emigrating.
Despite the criticism, government officials insist the decision was both inevitable and beneficial in the long term. In a recent address, Minister of Finance Wale Edun said the fuel subsidy was “an unsustainable fiscal cancer.”
“Subsidy payments were costing over N4 trillion annually,” Edun said. “That money is now being redirected to capital projects, social investments, and palliatives — even if the results are not instant.”
The government has introduced measures such as a conditional cash transfer program, a new minimum wage proposal, and incentives for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles. However, analysts say implementation has been patchy, and the benefits unevenly distributed.
At a crowded bus stop in Abuja, commuter Binta Yusuf clutches her handbag tightly and waits in line. “My salary is still N50,000. But my transport alone takes nearly N20,000 a month,” she says. “I skip meals to survive. This is not the change we voted for.”
Like Binta, millions of Nigerians now spend up to half their income on transportation. For small businesses, the impact has been equally harsh — with delivery costs soaring and generators consuming more expensive petrol due to epileptic power supply.
Economists are divided on whether the subsidy removal will deliver the promised benefits. Dr. Obinna Eze of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, believes the policy was necessary but mishandled.
“There was no social cushion,” he argues. “In a country with weak infrastructure and mass poverty, removing subsidies without a robust safety net only fuels inequality.”
Yet, others say Nigeria must stay the course. “The pain is real, but so was the damage caused by the subsidy regime — corruption, smuggling, inefficiency,” says IMF consultant Toyin Ajayi. “If we can endure now, the country may become more self-reliant in the long run.”
As Nigeria marks two years without fuel subsidies, the government faces mounting pressure to deliver on its promises of reform and relief. With the economy still reeling and public patience wearing thin, many citizens are asking the same question: Was it worth it?
In the words of Usman, the Lagos driver: “They told us it would get better. We are still waiting.”