As talks intensify over a potential alliance between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi under a broad-based coalition, political tensions are rising in Northern Nigeria, where voters and analysts remain divided on the viability of the movement ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Though Peter Obi has not formally defected from the Labour Party or joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC), political watchers say his actions suggest he is aligning with a growing opposition coalition seeking to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In an exclusive interview, Kano-based political analyst Abdulkadir Ibrahim, popularly known as Abba Gwale, described the Obi-Atiku partnership as a “serious threat” to the Tinubu administration, noting that Northern voters are paying close attention to the coalition’s progress.
“Peter Obi is yet to formally join ADC, but everyone knows he’s part of the movement. Most of the coalition’s key figures are Northerners, and many believe this alliance offers the best chance to defeat Tinubu in 2027,” Gwale said.
He added that voter mobilization in the North could dramatically shift in favor of the coalition if a credible candidate emerges from the bloc.
“If Northerners see a strong alternative to the current government, they will come out en masse to vote. The coalition has energized discussions in the North, and people are already getting ADC membership cards,” he noted.
Gwale pointed to recent defections, including that of former APC governorship candidate in Adamawa State, Aishatu Binani, as evidence of growing momentum for the ADC.
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He listed pressing issues such as fuel subsidy removal, high food prices, electricity tariff hikes, tuition increases in tertiary institutions, insecurity, and perceived nepotism as key factors shaping voter sentiment in the region.
“These are the issues that matter to the average Northern voter. Whoever addresses them credibly will have massive support,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mukhtar Adnan, a former House of Assembly aspirant in Kano, described the Obi-Atiku alliance as a political masterstroke.
“If you look at the numbers, Atiku and Obi together garnered nearly 13 million votes in 2023. Tinubu got 8 million. This alliance is not just strategic—it’s potentially game-changing,” Adnan stated.
He said grassroots discontent, particularly in Northern communities, has created fertile ground for a powerful opposition movement.
“People are tired. There’s hunger, there’s hardship. The belief is growing that Tinubu’s administration is not addressing the real challenges,” he said.
Adnan added that he considers Atiku Abubakar the most competent of all current presidential hopefuls.
“Atiku has both public and private sector experience. He understands Nigeria’s problems and has proposed practical solutions in previous campaigns. I’ll vote for Atiku, and I prefer Obi as his running mate,” he concluded.
However, not everyone in the region shares their optimism.
Al-ameem Kabeer from Katsina expressed doubts about the coalition’s chances, arguing that unless it attracts major political figures like former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and controls more state governments than the APC, it will remain a fringe effort.
“The APC won’t sit back and let power slip away. The ADC needs more structure, more governors, and national appeal to have a fighting chance,” he warned.
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Nazeer Dalhatu, a traditional district head in Kano, echoed the skepticism.
“Many of those joining the ADC are disgruntled politicians who failed in the APC. That doesn’t inspire confidence. They look disorganized,” he said.
A resident of Zaria, Abdulrasheed Omoniyi, offered a more nuanced view. He acknowledged that upsets are possible, citing the 2015 victory of the APC over then-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. Still, he said, the current political energy isn’t comparable.
“If they want to win, they need the same kind of momentum we saw in 2015. Right now, it’s not there,” he said, adding that a Southern candidate may struggle to win Northern support unless the coalition carefully balances the ticket.
Amid the growing speculation, ADC’s national spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi clarified that no presidential candidate has been endorsed by the party or the coalition.
“We are not endorsing any candidate yet. This movement is not about individual ambition but about building a national consensus for change,” Abdullahi said.
He revealed that many prominent figures in the ADC today are from Northern Nigeria, and the party’s immediate goal is to build a stronger grassroots presence and deepen its structures nationwide.
As the political chessboard begins to take shape ahead of 2027, one thing is clear—Northern Nigeria will remain a key battleground. Whether the proposed alliance can unify a fragmented opposition and translate growing public dissatisfaction into electoral victory remains to be seen.