By SUNDAY ODIBASHI
The horse trading for the 2019 presidential election is deepening across political parties and the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. The various aspirants for the presidential ticket of their respective political party have deployed their political machines to lobby, negotiate new alliances, trade off opportunities towards consensus building for the onerous presidential battle in 2019.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) looks safe for incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari to pick the ticket for second term. All the presidential aspirants, except Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, former Governor of Kano State, have stepped down for President Buhari. Several APC governors and party leaders have been expressing their endorsement of Buhari for second term.
Records of previous presidential elections indicate that President Buhari has electoral value of 12 million votes, while APC in the 2015 presidential election added marginal three million votes. Thus, both Buhari and the APC worth a little above 15 million votes.
APC’s aggregate electoral value, however, include the political assets of former members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who defected in the wake of the 2015 general elections.
The plot for automatic re-election ticket for the incumbent President Buhari compelled former Vice President Abubakar Atiku to resign from APC and pitched tent with the PDP.
If the idea of automatic ticket is set aside in the APC, the party primary could be contested between Buhari and Kwankwaso.
Findings show that PDP leaders are collectively involved in the search for a formidable credible presidential candidate to challenge Buhari in 2019. Thus, the emergence of the party presidential candidate is no longer left to ‘chance’ or the ability of individual aspirant to mobilize support. The PDP has become united in pursuing a collective interest. The party had earlier reached consensus on zoning the president to the North.
Currently, four aspirants have declared for the presidential ticket of the PDP. They include former Governor Sule Lamido of Jagawa State, former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, Sokoto State; former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, Kano State; and Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti State. Fayose is technically out of consideration because of the zoning of the presidential ticket to the North. The Ekiti Governor may, however, be using his participation to bargaining for the vice presidential ticket.
Other aspirants still on the side line who are yet to declare formally for the presidential race but have commenced mass mobilization include, former Vice President Abubakar Atiku and former President of the Senate, David Mark.
More so, Governor Ibrahim Dankwamnbo of Gombe State and Senator Ahmed Makarfi are also on the PDP presidential template.
Some PDP leaders have been trying to nurture Dankwambo for the presidential race. Makarfi is also being considered for the race by some other PDP leaders. He is believed to have had a trade off with Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State to deliver the PDP National Chairman to Uche Secondus, who was sponsored by Wike at the December 9, 2017 National Convention in Abuja, in return for the presidential ticket of the party. Apparently, Secondus may be under pressure to fulfill the deal and deliver the presidential ticket to Makarfi.
Meanwhile, there seem to be invisible opposition against Atiku within the PDP while the former vice president may be working assiduously to erase the perceived ‘hatred’ by some ruling elite in the country, essentially, former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The horse trading in the PDP seem to be oscillating between Dankwambo, Makarfi, Lamido, Shekarau and relatively Atiku. The Gombe Governor seems to be gaining stronger consideration of party leaders.
However, PDP leaders are also adopting the political simulation of searching for the presidential candidate beyond the party contours. There are indications that overtures are being made to Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso to return to the opposition party for the presidential ticket. The former Kano State Governor has sustained atomic covert campaign and horse trading in preparation for the 2019 presidential race. The ongoing negotiations for new alliances and coalitions could have been giving Kwankwaso the leverage to sustain his mobilization scheme despite the spreading endorsement of incumbent President Buhari for second and the unfolding agreement for automatic ticket by APC leaders.
The political profile of Kwankwaso has been on the rise in recent time as the Kwakwasiyya ideologue is becoming inculcated in the psyche of many northern youths and other stallholders across Nigeria. PDP leaders appear to be drawing convincing political calculus towards accepting Kwankwaso as the party’s presidential candidate.
Kwankwaso, individually, worth a little above one million votes. However, PDP with its mass structures worth over 16 million votes.
Former Vice President Atiku solely worth a little above two million votes. The former vice president, despite the relative disconnect with the ruling elite, seemingly controls revolutionary army of supporters who could cause sufficient upset using the PDP structures.
Paradoxically, PDP could be leaning towards Kwankwaso, Dankwambo, Makarfi, or Atiku to upstage Buhari in 2019, though not closing its doors against Lamido and Shekarau.
Some PDP presidential aspirants are likely to step down as the negotiation, horse trading and consensus building for a formidable credible presidential candidate deepen toward the PDP National Convention.