Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is heading into a decisive week for his political future, as party delegates prepare to vote on his leadership at the Conservatives’ national convention in Calgary.
While the outcome of the vote is widely expected to favour Poilievre, analysts say the more consequential challenge lies beyond party ranks: convincing a sceptical electorate that he is capable of leading Canada through a period of political and economic uncertainty.
Under party rules, a leadership review is mandatory following an election defeat. That vote will take place on Friday, months after the Conservatives lost the April federal election to the Liberals — a setback that also saw Poilievre lose his Ottawa-area parliamentary seat. Despite the double blow, party insiders describe the leadership vote as largely symbolic.
Conservatives familiar with internal dynamics say Poilievre retains overwhelming support within the party and is expected to clear the informal 80 per cent approval threshold often viewed as a benchmark of leadership strength. David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus Data, said recent polling shows a solid majority of Conservative members remain firmly behind him.
Supporters credit Poilievre with reshaping the party’s base by aggressively targeting Liberal vulnerabilities, particularly on housing affordability, the rising cost of living and carbon pricing. They also point to record membership growth and increased engagement among younger voters as evidence of his effectiveness as leader.
However, Poilievre’s standing with the broader Canadian public remains far weaker. National polls consistently show that more than half of Canadians hold an unfavourable view of him, a perception critics attribute to his confrontational style and polarising rhetoric.
“That divided public image is the single biggest barrier between the Conservatives and forming government,” Coletto said, adding that negative impressions, once entrenched, are notoriously difficult to undo.
The leadership review caps a turbulent year for the party. In addition to the election loss, two Conservative MPs defected to the Liberals late last year, bolstering Prime Minister Mark Carney’s centrist repositioning and bringing his minority government closer to majority territory.
Foreign policy has emerged as a particular weakness for Poilievre, especially questions surrounding how he would manage relations with US President Donald Trump. Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada, where his tariff threats and repeated remarks about Canada becoming the “51st state” have fuelled public unease.
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Poilievre’s populist tone has at times drawn comparisons to Trump — a link that analysts say has damaged his appeal beyond the Conservative base.
By contrast, Carney has leaned into his international credentials. His recent address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, outlining Canada’s posture toward a Trump-led United States, was widely praised by global leaders and commentators.
The Liberals further capitalised on the moment by resurfacing past comments from Poilievre in which he vowed to bar Conservative ministers from attending the World Economic Forum if he became prime minister.
Polling suggests the strategy has paid dividends. A Léger survey released this week puts Liberal support at 47 per cent among decided voters — enough to form government — while the Conservatives trail at 38 per cent. Analysts note that much of the Liberal gain came from smaller parties, rather than directly from Conservative voters.
Ben Woodfinden, Poilievre’s former communications director, argues that the party must refine its messaging on Trump and global affairs if it hopes to broaden its appeal.
Others caution against placing the blame solely on Poilievre. Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist and co-founder of the Oyster Group, says the leader has successfully re-energised the party and forced the Liberals to adjust policies on issues such as immigration and affordability.
“There’s no question his support inside the party remains strong,” she said.
Some observers believe Poilievre may already be recalibrating his approach. Following Carney’s Davos speech, he offered rare praise, calling it “well-crafted and eloquently delivered,” before pivoting to criticise the Liberals for deepening Canada’s economic dependence on the United States.
He has also signalled a willingness to cooperate with the government on select domestic initiatives, including a grocery tax rebate for low-income Canadians and reforms to bail laws.
Poilievre is expected to use his keynote address ahead of Friday’s leadership vote to set out his vision for the party’s future. The speech will be closely scrutinised for signs that he can soften his public image without alienating his core supporters.