Nigeria’s banking industry has entered the decisive phase of its sweeping recapitalisation programme, with lenders intensifying capital-raising and regulatory validation efforts ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Analysts at Proshare report that activity in the week ended February 12 appeared subdued, not for lack of momentum, but because attention has shifted from headline fundraising announcements to the more technical processes of regulatory verification and capital confirmation.
FCMB Group Plc is currently undergoing capital verification by the CBN to confirm compliance with the new minimum capital requirement of N500 billion for international banking licences.
The group had earlier secured a national banking licence in 2024 following an oversubscribed public offer and subsequently completed a N160 billion public offer last year as part of its strategy to retain its international banking status.
Market analysts view the ongoing verification as the final regulatory checkpoint. A successful confirmation would likely pave the way for a formal announcement affirming FCMB’s continued international operations.
The development places the lender at a critical juncture as the broader sector adjusts to tighter capital standards designed to strengthen resilience and risk absorption capacity.
Sterling Bank Plc has yet to formally unveil its recapitalisation roadmap. However, analysts expect a rights issue or private placement to bridge the gap between its current capital base of about N167 billion and the N200 billion requirement for its licence category.
Meanwhile, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) completed a N10 billion private placement, issuing 125 million shares at N80 each to a single investor.
Proshare analysts described the move as proactive capital strengthening rather than regulatory compulsion, signalling early positioning to reinforce buffers and support medium-term growth. The transaction has also been interpreted as evidence of sustained investor confidence in the group’s fundamentals.
For First HoldCo Plc, unaudited 2025 results highlighted another dimension of recapitalisation pressures.
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A sizeable impairment charge weighed heavily on earnings, underscoring how asset-quality shocks can quickly erode capital buffers. Analysts say the results reinforce the need for early capital planning, tighter risk controls, and stronger governance structures as regulatory expectations rise.
Beyond capital raising, market speculation during the week pointed to possible consolidation moves, including talk of a strategic merger between two tier-1 banks and potential bank-led investments in Nigeria’s refinery and energy infrastructure.
While unconfirmed, such discussions reflect growing industry interest in scale, diversification, and long-term competitiveness under the new capital regime.
Across smaller and mid-tier banks, recapitalisation strategies are increasingly linked to foreign partnerships and mergers.
Union Bank of Nigeria Plc has reportedly attracted foreign interest, particularly from investors in the United Arab Emirates, as it awaits resolution of a legal dispute involving a former core shareholder.
Keystone Bank Limited is said to be drawing attention from both local and foreign investors, with the possibility of a joint acquisition structure under consideration.
Similarly, Polaris Bank Limited is expected to pursue investor-led recapitalisation or explore a merger with another tier-2 lender, a move analysts believe would support broader industry consolidation.
Proshare’s Economic and Market Intelligence Unit notes that the CBN appears receptive to mergers and acquisitions as a viable pathway to building larger, more resilient banking institutions.
While domestic investors continue to show appetite for distressed or undercapitalised lenders, analysts suggest foreign strategic partnerships may be necessary to meet unencumbered capital requirements and enhance governance credibility.
Adding another layer to the evolving landscape, the CBN’s latest fintech report highlights rapid growth in digital finance and underscores the need for regulatory alignment to sustain innovation.
For traditional banks, this reinforces the urgency of balancing competitive pressures from fintech firms with partnership opportunities that can expand reach and operational efficiency.
With less than two months to the deadline, most tier-1 and tier-2 lenders are widely seen as having met revised capital buffers or positioned themselves close to compliance.
Tier-3 banks, however, remain under significant pressure to secure fresh funding, attract strategic investors, or combine with peers to remain competitive in the post-recapitalisation environment.