Nigeria is projected to face a worsening food security crisis in 2026, with as many as 34.7 million people at risk of acute food insecurity, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.”
The report warned that without urgent and coordinated policy interventions, persistent insecurity, rising production costs, climate shocks, and limited access to finance would continue to weaken food production, distribution, and access across the country.
PwC identified insecurity—particularly in northern Nigeria—as a major driver of the looming crisis. Ongoing conflicts have displaced thousands of farmers, disrupted planting and harvesting cycles, and reduced agricultural labour supply in key food-producing regions.
“Conflict, high input costs, and climate shocks are expected to push 34.7 million Nigerians into acute food insecurity in 2026,” PwC stated.
Between January and October 2025, the report noted that about 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, significantly constraining agricultural activities in the region.
The outlook also highlighted a sharp rise in agricultural input costs as a major constraint on food production. According to PwC, the national average price of NPK fertiliser increased by 19.5 per cent in 2025 to about N52,000 per 50kg bag.
“Production costs increased sharply, with maize and soybean production costs rising by 29.2 per cent and 36.8 per cent respectively,” the report said.
High costs and limited access to finance further reduced input usage among farmers. PwC disclosed that only 62 per cent of farmers used agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81 per cent in 2024. This led to a 24 per cent drop in input application and an eight per cent contraction in cultivated land.
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PwC’s projections align with warnings from farmers’ groups and international organisations. Previously, farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions had warned of abandoning farming due to rising production costs, insecurity, and massive post-harvest losses.
Nigeria has continued to struggle with high food inflation, driven by insecurity, currency pressures, rising energy prices, and increasing costs of agricultural inputs.
Fertiliser price hikes and weak access to agricultural finance have disproportionately affected smallholder farmers, who account for the bulk of domestic food production.
Agricultural and development experts warn that the scale of the projected food insecurity poses serious economic and humanitarian risks. Analysts note that food shortages could intensify inflationary pressures, deepen poverty, and increase social tensions if left unaddressed.
A food security analyst said the convergence of insecurity, climate stress, and high production costs represents a “perfect storm” for Nigeria’s food system.
“Without decisive action to restore security in farming communities and lower input costs, production will continue to decline, and more households will struggle to afford food,” the analyst noted.