- ranks 19 in Africa Investment index
By Chioma Obinagwam
Nigeria will be trending out of recession towards the end of 2017, according to data gathered by Quantum Global Research Lab.
Speaking at the presentation of the Africa Investment Index in Lagos, recently, Managing Director, Head of Quantum Global Research Lab, Mthuli Ncube said that a number of factors is indicative of an imminent exit of the country from recession.
Some of the factors he outlined include, an improvement in its Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth from 1 per cent in the current year to about 2.5 per cent in 2018; the likely convergence of the Foreign Exchange (FOREX) rates at the official(interbank) and unofficial(parallel) windows; increase in global oil prices as demand outweighs supply, etc.
“Nigeria ranks number 19 on the Africa Investment Index, although its Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is currently at 1 per cent, in the next few months, we expect it to move in the positive direction. Nigeria is on its way out of recession,” he said.
“Nigeria’s rates on the Forex market is converging. As the demand for oil exceeds supply, the price of oil in the international community will improve, impacting on the Nigerian economy,” he continued.
The forecast by Quantum Global seem to correspond with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s(CBN’s) projection for the recession, where it has consistently stated that Nigeria would exit the recession by the third quarter of 2017 going by the current improvement in the macroeconomic indicators.
Ncubeaded: “With 0.8 per cent prediction growth of the economy, I think the CBN is in the right direction. We might differ in quarters but the trend is the same. Nigeria is in the right direction.”
Extracts from the index, based on 2016 figures, showed that Nigeria’s Growth Factors Ranking made up of Real GDP, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth closed at 1 per cent, 34 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively.
Others include Liquidity Factors ranking, consisting of Real Interest Rate and Excess Money Supply recorded a ranking of 20 per cent each for the period under review.
The Africa Investment Index(AII), developed by Quantum Global Research Lab, is aimed at providing investors in Africa a guide to which countries and markets are most attractive for investment in the short to medium term.