Experts and civil society organisations are sharply divided over growing calls for the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu to introduce palliatives or reinstate fuel subsidies to cushion the impact of soaring petrol prices, following a spike in global crude oil costs.
The rise in oil prices has been linked to a 24-day geopolitical conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, which disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel—well above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64 per barrel.
While the development has temporarily boosted Nigeria’s oil revenues, it has simultaneously worsened domestic economic conditions.
Petrol prices have surged by about N492, representing a 56 percent increase, rising from N875 before February 28 to between N1,367 and N1,390 per litre as of Monday, March 23, 2026.
The sharp increase has triggered a ripple effect across the economy, with transport fares and food prices rising significantly. This has further eroded the purchasing power of millions of Nigerians, particularly low-income earners surviving on the N70,000 minimum wage.
Amid mounting hardship, key stakeholders are urging the government to act swiftly. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) called for a coordinated policy response to curb energy-driven inflation.
In a statement, CPPE’s Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, warned that the ongoing Middle East crisis could reverse Nigeria’s disinflation trend, which stood at 15.06 percent in February.
Similarly, the President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Joe Ajaero, urged the Federal Government not to delay intervention until industrial unrest erupts.
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According to him, the government is earning significant revenue from the crude oil price surge and should channel part of the gains into cushioning the effects on citizens.
At the subnational level, the Oyo State Government has approved a N10,000 wage allowance for its civil servants to mitigate the impact of rising fuel costs.
A Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, dismissed calls for a return to fuel subsidies, describing them as economically unsustainable and counterproductive.
He argued that subsidy regimes historically create market inefficiencies and divert critical resources away from sectors such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and power.
According to Iledare, evidence from the past two to three decades shows that subsidies often crowd out essential public investments, making their reintroduction ill-advised.
Instead, he advocated targeted social interventions, improved governance in the energy sector, and the strategic use of oil windfalls to strengthen economic resilience.
He also suggested measures such as crude oil discounts for local refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, as well as the removal of import duties or Value Added Tax on petroleum products to ease pump prices.
In contrast, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and Transparency International Nigeria, Auwal Rafsanjani, called for urgent pro-people policies to address the worsening cost-of-living crisis.
Rafsanjani criticised what he described as a lack of “sympathetic” and “pro-poor” policies, warning that the situation could deteriorate further without immediate government intervention.
He also argued that the financial gains from subsidy removal have not translated into tangible relief for Nigerians, suggesting that political considerations ahead of elections may be taking precedence over governance.
Describing the situation as a growing disconnect between leaders and citizens, Rafsanjani stressed the need for inclusive policies that prioritise the welfare of ordinary Nigerians.