As political temperatures begin to rise ahead of the 2027 presidential election, signs of an early battle for the soul of Nigeria’s presidency are unmistakable.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s camp last week sent a strong message by dispatching key allies to Kaduna to defend his administration’s record at a policy dialogue hosted by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation (SABMF). The symbolism was clear: Tinubu is aware that retaining northern support is critical to his re-election bid.
Although some of his supporters have downplayed the growing strength of the opposition, Tinubu appears acutely aware of the strategic importance of the northern voting bloc, which was instrumental to his 2023 victory — despite the presence of hometown heavyweight Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the race.
Observers note that Tinubu, the only southern candidate in 2023 who could pierce Atiku’s northern stronghold, now faces a tougher landscape.
Discontent over painful economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and currency devaluation, has created unrest among low-income earners — most of them in the north. Add to that, accusations of a “Yorubanisation agenda” in appointments, and the president’s support in the region has notably thinned.
Dr. Abdullahi Jibrin, a political scientist at the University of Abuja, noted: “Tinubu’s political instincts are sharp. He knows that he needs at least two of the three power legs — the north, the south-east, and the south-west — to stay in power. With the north grumbling and the south-east leaning toward Peter Obi, his margin of error is slim.”
Nigeria’s presidential politics has long been dominated by the “tripod” of power blocs: the Muslim north, the south-east, and the south-west. Historically, victory comes from securing two out of three.
In 2023, Tinubu had the south-west locked down and managed to outmaneuver Atiku in the north, helped in part by Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose strong outing in the northwest diluted Atiku’s grip.
Tinubu is likely to run unchallenged for the APC ticket, but he may once again face Atiku Abubakar, who is tipped to emerge as the consensus candidate of a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
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Peter Obi, the 2023 third-force surprise, remains a wild card — reportedly weighing a switch from the Labour Party to the ADC.
Obi’s Dilemma: Running Mate or Presidential Candidate?
Whispers of an Atiku-Obi ticket are gaining traction, reviving memories of their 2019 alliance. But Obi, now a national figure in his own right, may not be keen to take a backseat. His supporters view any return to a subordinate role as a betrayal.
Still, political pragmatists argue that Obi’s best shot at power may lie in a deal with Atiku — perhaps serving one term as running mate, then succeeding in 2031.
“Obi has street credibility, especially among the youth and Christian minorities,” said Eloho Akerele, a Lagos-based political analyst. “If he can add northern Muslim votes to his base, he’s virtually unbeatable. But that’s a tall order unless he joins a coalition.”
Tinubu’s Strategy: Fragment the Opposition
For President Tinubu, the best-case scenario is a three-way race, as in 2023. A divided opposition could help him repeat the same strategy — coming second in multiple states but racking up enough nationwide votes to secure the constitutional spread and majority.
His 2023 numbers prove the point: Tinubu placed first in only 12 states but came second in 18 others, clinching 25% in 30 states. He even lost key APC states like Lagos, Kaduna, and Kano but maintained high vote shares.
Atiku’s Final Shot?
At 79 in 2027, Atiku Abubakar likely sees this as his last real chance to clinch the presidency after five attempts dating back to 1993. His best-case scenario would be to have Obi as running mate — which could deliver both the north and the south-east.
But even without Obi, Atiku may benefit from regional resentment against Tinubu, especially if economic conditions remain dire.
That said, northern political elites are not fully aligned with Atiku either. Many of them have presidential ambitions for 2031 and may back Tinubu’s second term to clear the path for their own runs.
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Some insiders say former President Goodluck Jonathan is also being courted as a potential one-term candidate to balance north-south power sharing. However, Jonathan’s willingness to re-enter the fray remains uncertain.
The Wildcards: Amaechi, Jonathan, and Kwankwaso
Rotimi Amaechi, former minister and APC heavyweight, is also reportedly eyeing the ADC ticket, having promised to serve just one term. Obi has made a similar pledge. But those close to Tinubu warn that such promises may be politically unenforceable, especially once in office.
Meanwhile, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has remained coy about his next move. Though a founding member of the APC, he has resisted overtures to return, fueling speculation he may pair up with a Jonathan candidacy or test the waters solo again.
Party Turmoil and Strategic Alignments
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once the largest opposition platform, remains in turmoil — largely under the influence of Chief Nyesom Wike, now a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet. With Atiku’s camp estranged from the PDP, the party is unlikely to field a unified ticket in 2027.
In contrast, the ADC is becoming the main opposition hub, with potential to unite Obi, Atiku, and other dissatisfied political actors.
2027: A Rematch on the Horizon?
As it stands, a Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi rematch appears to be the most likely scenario — a high-stakes, high-energy battle that will test political alliances, regional loyalties, and voter sentiment in unprecedented ways.
Whether through direct collaboration or indirect fragmentation, every candidate will be playing the numbers game, hoping to win two out of the three legs of Nigeria’s political tripod.
And in the words of one senior APC strategist: “2023 was the rehearsal. 2027 will be the real show.”