In a wide-ranging and controversial appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today, former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, made explosive political and security-related claims that are already generating heated debate across the country.
El-Rufai boldly predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not make it to the second round of voting in the 2027 presidential election.
“In the worst-case scenario, there will be a runoff,” El-Rufai said. “But Tinubu will not be part of it — he will come third.”
The former APC chieftain, now reportedly leading a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the North West, claimed that widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration will cost the president re-election.
El-Rufai also stirred ethnic and regional tensions by downplaying the electoral weight of Southern Kaduna, a Christian-majority area of the state.
“They are not even up to 25 percent of the population,” he claimed, dismissing long-held beliefs that the region comprises up to 45 percent of Kaduna’s demographics.
He used this to defend his controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket strategy while in office, arguing that political realities, not religious bias, shaped his choices.
“You don’t win elections with sentiments. You win with numbers, and the numbers are not there,” El-Rufai said.
Southern Kaduna comprises 8 out of 23 local government areas in the state, but El-Rufai insists their political influence is overstated.
In a shocking revelation, El-Rufai accused the Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) of collaborating with criminal elements under the guise of peace initiatives.
“The NSA’s office pays bandits and sends them food in the forests,” El-Rufai alleged, claiming it is all part of a flawed ‘non-kinetic approach’ to insecurity.
He said intelligence from traditional rulers whom he appointed while serving as governor suggests that the security situation in Kaduna has not improved, despite official claims.
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“There’s a cover-up. These people are still operating freely,” he added.
Perhaps the most damning statement came when El-Rufai relayed comments from an elder statesman:
“An 80-year-old man told me this is the only government in Nigeria’s history that came into office without any intention to work for Nigerians. They came to make money, and nothing else.”
The identity of the elder was not disclosed, but the comment adds to a growing narrative of disenchantment with the Tinubu administration, even from former allies.
El-Rufai’s statements are likely to deepen divisions within the ruling APC and further energize opposition groups ahead of the 2027 elections.
His direct attacks on Tinubu and the federal security apparatus mark a significant shift in Nigeria’s political landscape.
Neither the Presidency nor the Office of the National Security Adviser has officially responded to El-Rufai’s allegations at the time of this report.