The storm clouds of war have darkened, not lifted, since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. While the president promised to end the conflict in a day, a BBC Verify analysis has found that Russia’s aerial assault on Ukraine has more than doubled, reaching unprecedented levels.
Since Trump’s presidency began in January, Moscow has launched over 27,000 drones and missiles the highest number recorded since the war started.
This dramatic escalation has put Trump’s diplomatic strategy under a harsh spotlight. Critics point to two separate occasions in March and July when his administration paused the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. These delays came as Russia was aggressively ramping up its own production, with one factory director in Tatarstan boasting that his plant is now the “largest combat drone production plant in the world.”
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The White House insists Trump is still working for peace. Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly stated that the president is “selling American-made weapons to Nato members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire.”
This shift to a tougher stance, however, only came after months of what the Atlantic Council described as an overly accommodating approach toward Russia, an approach that appeared to offer Putin a favorable exit from the war.
Despite Trump’s public frustrations and a recent ultimatum for a peace deal by August 8, the attacks have only intensified.
In July alone, Russia launched over 6,000 drones and nearly 200 missiles, marking a record for both categories. One night, on July 9, saw a combined barrage of over 740 munitions, leaving a trail of death and destruction.
For the people of Ukraine, this is not a political game, but a terrifying daily reality. “Every time you go to sleep, you don’t know if you’re going to wake up the next morning,” a Kyiv journalist named Dasha Volk told the BBC.
The fear is palpable, and the public’s exhaustion is growing.
Meanwhile, military analysts warn that Russia’s surge in production, coupled with the U.S. aid delays, has created a dangerous window of vulnerability for Ukraine.
The increased use of sophisticated, higher-altitude drones and swarming tactics are overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses, which are now desperately in need of more Patriot missiles.
As the war enters its most punishing phase yet, the path to peace seems more distant than ever.
Trump’s deadline looms, but Putin shows no signs of backing down, believing Russia is winning and that it “cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it,” as one Kremlin source told Reuters.
The choices made by Washington now will determine whether Ukraine can withstand this new storm or be left to face it alone