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Why APC will lose for Buhari to win in 2019
Since the ruling party APC began its teething problem in 2016–from the Ondo primary election where party leader Bola Tinubu fell apart with his chairman John Oyegun–the party has been on a path to self-destruct.
And looking at its just concluded ward and state congresses across the nation, the APC is sure not to get to the election year in one piece, analysts believe.
Informing President Muhammadu Buhari after the ward congresses, Imo Gov. Rochas Okorocha said the conduct was primitive.
‘Those kind of funny politics that were played must stop, where people want to carry ballot boxes, steal results…” he told newsmen.
“We expect internal democracy and internal democracy is the way to go.”
According to him, Buhari, who had earlier commended the delegates for good conduct, later said that “such things must stop.’’
But they didn’t.
The state congress was no better as parallel bodies of executives were elected in more than 20 states.
Besides, party members in Bayelsa, Katsina, and other states who were so embittered by the rancour had to defect to the PDP.
Many more defectors are waiting right in the wings.
Which is why many political observers still believe the national convention will witness more pyrotechnics.
If it happens as predicted, It holds no good for the ruling party seeking re-election for its leader and president.
The barrage of pummeling by the opposition, comprising the PDP, three coalitions, and over 60 other parties has equally made an impact on the APC.
Its legacy parties–the ACN, nPDP, ANPP, and a faction of the APGA—are feeling like holding the short end of the stick now.
The Kawu Baraje-led nPDP is particularly gutted, leading to internal bickering and whining and series of meeting with the leadership of the APC.
Sen. President Bukola Saraki, six former PDP governors, including Rabiu Kwakwanso, now a senator, Murtala Nyako, other senators, and a lot more, are among the nPDP caucus in the ruling party.
In the second meeting held Saturday, after the first with the APC leadership, the nPDP, according to sources within the meeting, admitted there was some sort of tension in the mega party; and they all agreed the APC leaders ruptured the terms of agreement in the run-up to the 2015 election.
With this chain of crisis across the party levels, it is fairly certain the APC convention on June 23 won’t be a tea party. And that’s less than 10 months away from elections.
Oyegun actually expressed his fear about this.
“We have a tough election ahead of us and we must prime ourselves for that election,’ he warned during the inauguration of congress committee in April.
“We must not cuddle ourselves with any false sense of being the party in power.”
With such foreboding feeling coming from the topmost level of the party, the 2019 presidency may be difficult for the APC–its legacy parties, loyalists—to win.
But Kaduna Gov. Nasir el-Rufai sees things in rose-coloured spectacles.
Buhari alone is a winner, according to the governor, any day. And nPDP can just suit itself.
“Who are these new PDP people that are threatening? They are Kwara, Kano, Sokoto, Adamawa, Rivers but I don’t think Amaechi is part of them,” said el-Rufai recently after a meeting with Buhari at Aso Rock.
“Go back to 2003 and check. Buhari then under ANPP won in all these four states.”
That is a known fact to many, even in the opposition.
Certain observers in the PDP know Buhari is a roaring trade in the north.
“Buhari is not viewed just as a politician in the north, ” said PDP stalwart Femi Fani-Kayode tweeting recemtly on the 2019 election.
“He is a religion and he commands a fanatical following and cult-like loyalty.”
And, unfortunately, the PDP and the mass of coalitions flexing against Buhari in 2019 are yet to get their act together.
There are now three coalitions–the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (the Third Force); the Nigeria Intervention Movement; and the Coalition for New Nigeria. And their agenda and vision, including those of the individual parties, are as divergent as their political leanings.
The clout and popularity, especially of about 60 of the mushrooming parties, are also in doubt. Many of them have never fielded candidates good enough to win a local council election.
And the movements, about nine months to the election, have not been able to produce a common agenda, a consensus candidate, or any thing of mutual benefit.
“By the end of 2012 for instance, we already knew who was going to challenge Jonathan in 2015. You can’t say the same thing today,” said Segun Adeniyi, author and special adviser to the late President Umar Yar’ Adua.
He noted this during the reading of his book Against the Run of Play at the School of Government and Policy, Ibadan.
According to him, only a formidable and cohesive opposition can defeat Buhari in 2019. That is irrespective of the calamities befalling the ruling APC now.
“And for me, there are only two political parties right now; there may be others in future, but now it’s either APC or PDP,’ he said.
” All these Red Card, Third Force, and all those things… all that they help is the incumbent because the incumbent has the support base.”
Their pussyfooting can only make Buhari more invincible though his party APC is in tatters.