Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, has pledged to mobilise at least three million votes for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, a target that appears extraordinarily ambitious when compared with the state’s total registered electorate and previous voting figures.

Fubara made the promise on Saturday, November 7, 2026, during Tinubu’s campaign rally at the Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt. He said the state would deliver not fewer than three million votes for the President, crediting the political arrangement led by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, for the mobilisation effort.

The governor’s declaration has, however, raised questions about the feasibility of the target, particularly given that Rivers State has 3,736,434 registered voters, according to figures recently disclosed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

At three million votes, Fubara’s promise represents approximately 80.3 per cent of the state’s entire registered electorate.

In practical terms, that would require an exceptionally high proportion of registered voters to turn out, be accredited and vote for one presidential candidate. It also assumes that an overwhelming majority of those who participate would support Tinubu.

What the 2023 election figures reveal

The voting record from the 2023 presidential election offers an important basis for assessing the governor’s promise.

INEC’s declared results showed that 553,944 votes were cast in Rivers State in the 2023 presidential election. Of that number, 523,651 were valid votes, while 30,293 were rejected.

Tinubu, then the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, won the state with 231,591 votes. Peter Obi of the Labour Party received 175,071 votes, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party polled 88,468.

The total votes cast in 2023 were therefore far below the three million votes Fubara has now promised for Tinubu alone.

To reach the governor’s target, the number of votes cast for Tinubu would have to be more than five times the total ballots cast by all candidates in Rivers during the previous presidential election.

Even if voter participation increases significantly in 2027, securing three million votes for one candidate would require an unprecedented electoral performance in the state.

Registered voters are not guaranteed votes

A major distinction in the debate is the difference between registered voters and actual votes cast.

The 3,736,434 figure represents people registered to vote in Rivers State. It does not mean that all of them will participate in the election, nor does it indicate how they intend to vote.

Some registered voters may not turn out on election day because of personal circumstances, insecurity, logistical difficulties or lack of confidence in the electoral process. Others may choose candidates different from the one supported by the state government or the political coalition.

Ultimately, voting is an individual constitutional right. Neither the governor nor any political leader can guarantee how citizens will exercise that right.

Fubara can promise to campaign, mobilise supporters and encourage voter participation, but the actual outcome will depend on the choices made by voters at the polling units.

Is the three-million target a political statement?

The pledge also comes against the background of the political reconciliation between Fubara and Wike following their prolonged disagreement over control of Rivers State’s political structure.

At the rally, Fubara praised Tinubu for intervening during the political crisis and described the President’s actions as support that Rivers State should reciprocate.

The governor also acknowledged Wike’s leadership of the Rainbow Coalition, a political arrangement bringing together politicians from different parties to support Tinubu’s re-election and adopted candidates in Rivers.

The promise of three million votes could therefore be interpreted as a demonstration of political loyalty and an attempt to project the strength of the coalition ahead of the election.

However, political declarations at campaign rallies should not be confused with measurable electoral support. A large crowd at a rally, endorsements from political office holders and assurances from party leaders do not necessarily translate into votes on election day.

The real test will be whether the coalition can persuade voters across the state to support its preferred candidates.

Rivers voters will have the final say

Rivers is politically significant, with INEC figures placing it among the states with the largest registered electorates in the country. Its 3.7 million registered voters make it an important battleground in the 2027 presidential election.

But the state’s electoral importance does not automatically make a three-million-vote target achievable.

The governor and the coalition leaders will have to contend with political competition, voter preferences, turnout levels and the credibility of the electoral process.

More importantly, Rivers residents are not a voting bloc whose choices can be determined by political leaders.

Fubara’s pledge may energise the President’s supporters and demonstrate the confidence of the Rainbow Coalition. But measured against the available electoral figures, the three-million-vote promise remains a highly ambitious political projection.

Whether the governor can turn that declaration into actual votes will only become clear when INEC announces the results of the 2027 presidential election.