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Northern political realignment to reshape opposition to Tinubu
A new political coalition, primarily of northern elements allegedly sidelined within the All Progressives Congress (APC), is set to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s administration in 2025.
This prediction comes from a recently published SBM Intelligence report titled “The Year Ahead – Caught in Currents,” released on December 20, 2024. The report highlights a shifting political landscape in Nigeria, characterized by regional discontent and realignments that could redefine opposition politics.
According to SBM Intelligence, dissatisfaction in northern Nigeria has reached a critical level, with prominent voices increasingly vocal in their criticism of the Tinubu administration.
The report states that this discontent will catalyze the formation of a new opposition bloc, with key northern figures spearheading efforts to challenge the ruling APC’s dominance in the region.
“A new political group will emerge as the main opposition to the Tinubu Administration. It will be clustered around the northern elements that are out of favour in the APC,” the report predicts.
This development is underscored by resistance to President Tinubu’s proposed tax reform bill, which has sparked a heated national debate. Northern leaders, including Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum and former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, have expressed concerns about the bill’s potential to exacerbate regional inequalities.
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They argue that the reforms could disproportionately burden northern states already grappling with economic hardships, high poverty rates, and persistent security challenges.
The tensions within the APC have become increasingly apparent, as key northern politicians distance themselves from the administration. Former Senate Chief Whip Ali Ndume’s removal over alleged anti-party comments further highlights internal divisions. Ndume was replaced by Senator Tahir Monguno of Borno North, signaling efforts by Tinubu’s allies to consolidate loyalty within the party.
In August, the National Economic Council (NEC), led by Vice President Kashim Shettima, advised President Tinubu to withdraw the contentious National Tax Reform Bills to allow for “sufficient alignment” among stakeholders.
Despite this, the SBM Intelligence report anticipates that Tinubu will push forward with implementing the reforms in 2025, a move likely to heighten tensions with northern leaders.
Political analysts view the emergence of a northern-centric opposition as a significant challenge to the Tinubu administration.
Dr. Yusuf Kaita, a political analyst specializing in Nigerian governance, noted, “This realignment could reshape the political terrain, as northern leaders leverage regional discontent to build a robust opposition framework.”
Kaita also highlighted the strategic implications of the APC’s internal conflicts. “Losing support from influential northern politicians could weaken the party’s hold on the region and create opportunities for opposition groups to capitalize on the growing frustrations among the northern electorate,” he explained.
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The SBM Intelligence report also predicts a shift in the power dynamics within the Tinubu administration, with National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu emerging as a key player.
Ribadu’s growing influence is expected to overshadow Vice President Kashim Shettima, positioning him as the de facto second-in-command.
“Nuhu Ribadu’s prominence in 2025 will shape the political and security dynamics of the administration,” the report stated, adding that his role could bolster Tinubu’s strategic agenda but also intensify internal competition within the administration.
President Tinubu’s administration faces significant challenges ahead. His proposed ₦49.7 trillion budget for 2025 has drawn criticism from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which argues that it will worsen unemployment and inflation. These economic concerns, coupled with the political realignment in the North, set the stage for a tumultuous year.
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu garnered 8,794,726 votes, with 5,335,114 coming from northern states. However, retaining this support may prove difficult as regional discontent grows and new political alliances form.
As Nigeria heads into 2025, the emergence of a northern opposition group and shifting power dynamics within the Tinubu administration are poised to redefine the political landscape.
Analysts emphasize that the administration’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its stability and legacy in the years ahead.
The evolving situation underscores the need for inclusive governance and strategic policymaking to address regional disparities and foster national unity.