Oil prices climb past $100 amid fragile Strait of Hormuz ceasefire uncertainty

 Global oil prices surged above the $100-per-barrel mark on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, as uncertainty surrounding a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran continued to rattle energy markets.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 4 percent to close at $101.80 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 3.6 percent to $93.38. The rebound comes despite an announcement by Donald Trump that a U.S.-led truce with Iran would be extended indefinitely.

However, the absence of an official response from Tehran and the continued enforcement of a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian oil exports have kept traders on edge, raising doubts about the ceasefire’s durability.

Analysts say the market has shifted from reacting to political statements to focusing on actual supply conditions. “The key issue now is whether oil can physically move,” one commodities strategist noted, pointing to ongoing restrictions on tanker movements.

Volatility has been heightened by conflicting developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. Although the passage was briefly reopened last week, Iranian officials have since suggested renewed disruptions, fueling fears of prolonged instability.

The continued blockade has been described by Iranian authorities as an act of aggression, further complicating diplomatic efforts. Market observers warn that even if a lasting ceasefire is reached, restoring normal supply flows through the region could take weeks or months.

The surge in oil prices is already sending ripple effects across the global economy. The International Energy Agency has warned that the ongoing crisis could lead to one of the largest supply disruptions in modern history, with global output projected to decline by about one million barrels per day in 2026.

In Europe, policymakers at the European Central Bank have delayed planned interest rate cuts, citing energy-driven inflation risks. Meanwhile, global oil inventories have sharply declined as refiners scramble to secure alternative supplies.

Diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation are ongoing, with Pakistan reportedly playing a mediating role. However, broader regional tensions, including the ongoing crisis in Gaza, continue to pose significant risks to any long-term agreement.

As uncertainty persists, analysts say oil markets are likely to remain volatile, with prices expected to stay elevated until there is clear evidence of restored supply routes and a sustained de-escalation in the region.