Sahel Under Siege: Jihadist Violence Surges Across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

By Ogundele Eniola

The Sahel is facing another dangerous escalation in militant violence, with attacks linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates reaching unprecedented levels across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

New data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED) indicate that the number of violent incidents involving jihadist groups in the three countries has risen dramatically over the past decade, from just 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025.

With 2,145 incidents already recorded in 2026, the region is on course to surpass last year’s figure if the current pace continues. The surge highlights the resilience of armed groups operating across one of Africa’s most unstable regions, despite years of military operations and changing international security partnerships.

Among the most active groups is Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked coalition that has expanded its activities particularly in Mali and across neighbouring areas.

Islamic State-linked fighters are also active in the region, creating a complex security environment in which rival militant organisations, government forces and other armed groups compete for territory and influence.

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Analysts say militant groups have increasingly exploited porous borders, weak state presence and difficult terrain to expand their operations.

The violence has also increasingly affected population centres and major transport routes, placing civilians at greater risk and disrupting trade and everyday economic activity.

The escalation comes as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have dramatically reshaped their foreign and security relationships following military coups in all three countries.

The three governments have moved away from longstanding Western security partnerships and established the Alliance of Sahel States, while strengthening military cooperation with Russia.

The countries have also sought to develop their own regional security structures, including a unified force intended to combat armed groups operating across their borders.

Yet the continued rise in militant attacks demonstrates the difficulty of containing insurgencies that operate across vast territories and exploit weaknesses along national borders.

Recent developments in Niger have further illustrated the pressure facing governments in the region. The country’s military leadership recently replaced its army chief following a mutiny at a military base near Niamey, while Russian Africa Corps personnel reportedly assisted government forces in suppressing the uprising.

Beyond military confrontations, the worsening security situation is having profound consequences for civilians. Thousands of people have been displaced by violence, while communities in affected areas face disrupted access to food, healthcare, education and economic opportunities.

The region’s insecurity has also raised concerns beyond its immediate borders. The expansion of militant networks across the Sahel creates additional pressure on coastal West African countries, including nations along the Gulf of Guinea that have spent years trying to prevent the conflict from spreading southward.

For Nigeria and its neighbours, the developments are particularly significant because militant networks operating around the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin have increasingly demonstrated the ability to cooperate across geographic boundaries.

Military operations remain central to the response, but the persistence of armed groups points to wider challenges involving governance, economic marginalisation, porous borders and limited state presence in remote communities.

As militant violence continues to rise, the security crisis is becoming more than a series of isolated attacks. It is increasingly shaping the political, economic and humanitarian landscape of an entire region.