2023: 2 reasons Atiku may not stop Bola Tinubu

Mr. Raymond Dokpesi, the chairman of Daar Communication has argued that it is only Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who can stop Bola Tinubu from becoming the president of the country. He is among the caretaker committee for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s ambition.

According to the report, the ally of Atiku Abubakar said, “the Waziri (Atiku) is the right person that could match Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu” should he eventually emerge as the presidential candidate of APC.”

But there are two reasons Atiku Abubakar may not be able to stop the former Lagos State governor. The two men can go head to head, but lots of factors will help the national leader of the All Progressives Congress. And he will surely have an edge over the Adamawa politician. Note that Atiku Abubakar has only shown some gestures, he has not told Nigerians he would like to contest again.

The first reason is that Bola Tinubu has gone so far in his consultation to the extent that Atiku Abubakar may not be able to catch up with him anytime soon. Tinubu has started earlier than the former vice president. Hence, Atiku may not be able to stop him.

Tinubu was in the two big Northern states of Katsina and Kano few days ago. He was actually welcomed and he had a great day in the two Northwestern states. Winning the two states may be difficult for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

Note that when Atiku contested against incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, he (Atiku) couldn’t claim any of the big states in the northwest. Then, there is still no link that connects him with the region. So, it will be difficult or almost impossible for him to stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

To further prove how far Tinubu had moved, he was in Niger State recently. Niger is a big state in the north-central region. He didn’t just go to meet the state governor alone, he consulted the former military president, Ibrahim Babangida.

The second reason is the political structure of the country. It is crystal clear that the All Progressives Congress has a very big edge over the People’s Democratic Party. The 36 states are not evenly or equally shared.

The All Progressives Congress can point at 14 northern states (Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nassarawa, Plateau). And in the southern part, the APC firmly controls Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Lagos, Cross River, Imo and Ebonyi.

The PDP can point at just 12 states altogether. Now how can Atiku Abubakar use these twelve states to stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu who can rely on the support of the 22 states of the federation?

Although the chance is slim, if both Tinubu and Atiku meet at the presidential election, the former vice president may not be able to stop Bola Tinubu.