$50bn pledged, $2.06bn delivered: Nigeria’s FDI gap under Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has secured more than $50 billion in investment commitments through 87 Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) since May 29, 2023, but only about $2.06 billion of actual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has entered Nigeria during the period.

The commitments, announced following the President’s foreign trips and diplomatic engagements, cover key sectors including energy, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, technology and infrastructure.

The disparity between announced commitments and realised FDI has renewed debate over Nigeria’s ability to convert investment diplomacy into actual capital, businesses and jobs.

Tinubu has undertaken more than 36 foreign trips since assuming office, visiting countries across Africa, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas. The trips, reportedly costing about N37.6 billion in travel-related expenses, have included state visits, investment forums, bilateral meetings and multilateral engagements.

Among the major investment commitments announced are ExxonMobil’s $10 billion plan to expand deepwater oil production, APPL’s €9.2 billion Hydrogen Polis project in Akwa Ibom, Indorama’s $8 billion expansion of petrochemical and fertiliser facilities in Rivers State, Jindal Steel’s $3 billion steel investment and Shell’s $3 billion oil and gas commitment.

Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms has also pledged $3.5 billion for infrastructure and industrial development.

However, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that only about $2.06 billion in FDI entered Nigeria between May 2023 and the first quarter of 2026 — roughly 4.3 per cent of total capital imported during the period.

Nigeria attracted approximately $47.6 billion in foreign capital during the period, but much of it came through portfolio investment rather than direct investment in productive assets.

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FDI inflows were particularly modest in several quarters, although the figure rose to $421.88 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, the highest quarterly inflow recorded during the period. FDI stood at $923.01 million for the whole of 2025, accounting for just 3.97 per cent of the $23.22 billion total capital imported that year.

Experts Seek Focus on Conversion

Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the gap should not automatically be interpreted as a failure because large-scale foreign investments often require extensive due diligence before funds are committed.

According to him, investors assess country risks, financing conditions, regulatory issues and alternative investment destinations before making long-term commitments.

University of Abuja lecturer, Dr Olu Olajemgbesi, similarly said the $50 billion commitments demonstrate significant international interest in Nigeria but stressed that investment interest is different from investment realisation.

He said the critical questions should be how many projects have reached final investment decisions or financial close, how much money has actually entered Nigeria, and how many jobs and productive assets have been created.

Olajemgbesi said the foreign trips should not be judged solely by whether pledged funds have immediately arrived, but argued that the government must demonstrate its ability to convert diplomatic engagements into deployable capital.

The experts noted that issues such as exchange-rate uncertainty, regulatory bottlenecks, infrastructure deficits, political risks and the broader business environment could determine whether pledged investments ultimately materialise.

While the Federal Government views the investment commitments as evidence of growing international confidence in Nigeria, the relatively small FDI component of total capital inflows suggests that attracting pledges is only the first step.