As Xenophobia Resurfaces, Nigeria–South Africa Economic Ties Face Fresh Test

By Arthur Eriye

For decades, Nigeria and South Africa have shouldered the responsibility of advancing Africa’s economic goals. One is the most populous country on the continent, while the other boasts the most developed economy. Together, they have influenced regional diplomacy, attracted significant foreign investment, and established themselves as the foundational supports for Africa’s economic integration.

However, every few years, this carefully nurtured partnership is disrupted not by trade conflicts or ideological disagreements, but by violent assaults on African migrants in South Africa.

The most recent surge of anti-immigrant violence has once again strained the relations between the two nations. Nigerians were among those affected by the turmoil, with businesses destroyed, livelihoods disrupted, and families compelled to flee. In response, the Nigerian government has evacuated approximately 1,490 of its citizens from South Africa, highlighting the gravity with which Abuja regards the worsening security situation. Beyond the immediate humanitarian implications, a deeper question arises: can the most significant bilateral relationship in Africa continue to flourish when ordinary citizens increasingly fear crossing each other’s borders?

This question is particularly crucial as the stakes extend well beyond mere diplomatic formalities. Together, Nigeria and South Africa represent a considerable portion of sub-Saharan Africa’s economic activity. They are anticipated to lead the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), advocate for regional integration, and provide guidance on various issues, including peacekeeping and climate change.

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Consequently, each new incident of xenophobic violence resonates far beyond Johannesburg or Lagos. It challenges not only the strength of bilateral relations but also the credibility of Africa’s vision for free movement, shared prosperity, and continental unity

A Partnership Forged in History

The relationship between Nigeria and South Africa is deeply rooted in historical context.

During the apartheid era, Nigeria emerged as one of the most vocal advocates for the liberation of South Africa. Successive administrations in Nigeria extended financial aid, scholarships, diplomatic support, and political backing to the anti-apartheid movement. The contributions of Nigeria to South Africa’s fight for freedom are still recognized by many South Africans today.

Following the establishment of democracy in 1994, both nations seemed poised to evolve into strategic allies.

SoutH African enterprises aggressively entered Nigeria’s burgeoning economy, making significant investments in sectors such as telecommunications, banking, media, hospitality, and retail. Concurrently, Nigerian entrepreneurs, professionals, entertainers, and technology companies increasingly made their presence felt in South Africa, drawn by its relatively advanced infrastructure and access to Southern African markets.

Currently, firms like MTN, MultiChoice, Stanbic IBTC, and various South African manufacturers have become essential components of Nigeria’s economic landscape. In turn, Nigerian music, films, and creative talents are immensely popular in South Africa, with thousands of Nigerians actively participating in fields ranging from healthcare and education to information technology and commerce.

This profound economic interdependence renders every diplomatic crisis particularly significant.

Why Xenophobia Keeps Returning

South Africa has faced numerous instances of xenophobic violence over the last twenty years.

Significant assaults in 2008, 2015, and 2019 resulted in many fatalities and the displacement of thousands of migrants from various African nations. Victims of these attacks include Nigerians, Zimbabweans, Mozambicans, Ethiopians, Somalis, and Malawians.

The fundamental causes of this violence are still hotly debated.

Some South Africans contend that the rise in undocumented migration has intensified the strain on housing, healthcare, education, and job opportunities. Conversely, others blame foreign nationals for monopolizing informal trade and exacerbating criminal behavior.

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However, migration experts and economists warn against oversimplifying a multifaceted economic crisis by attributing it solely to immigration. South Africa continues to grapple with persistently high unemployment rates, especially among the youth, sluggish economic growth, increasing inequality, and one of the highest crime rates globally. In this context, migrants frequently become easy targets for frustrations that stem from deeper structural economic issues rather than their genuine contributions to society.

This distinction holds significant importance.

It implies that unless South Africa confronts its fundamental economic issues, sporadic assaults on foreign nationals may persist irrespective of immigration regulations.

When Human Lives Transform into Diplomatic Concerns

Beneath every statistic exists a personal tragedy.

The recent violence has compelled numerous Nigerian-owned enterprises to temporarily close, while many families have fled their homes and belongings accumulated over years of diligent effort.

For some individuals, returning to Nigeria signifies the forfeiture of lifelong investments.

For others, it entails starting anew from scratch.

The crisis took on an even more alarming aspect following the death of a Nigerian citizen during a police operation in South Africa.

Nigerian officials have claimed that one of the victims passed away during the operation, leading Abuja to call for a thorough investigation and accountability. Conversely, South African police have rejected claims that the death was directly linked to the anti-immigrant violence, asserting that the Nigerian individual collapsed after being apprehended during a drug-related operation in Pretoria. The issue has now been forwarded to South Africa’s Independent Police Investigative Directorate for further examination.

Regardless of whether the investigation ultimately supports either viewpoint, the perception it has generated may be of greater importance.

For numerous Nigerians residing in South Africa, this incident has intensified concerns that even governmental institutions may not consistently provide sufficient protection during times of increased anti-immigrant sentiment.

From a diplomatic perspective, it has introduced an additional layer of strain to an already fragile relationship.

This situation exemplifies how personal tragedies can swiftly transform into international issues, forcing governments to navigate the complexities of domestic public sentiment alongside broader strategic priorities.

Can Economics Outweigh Emotion?

Ironically, although diplomatic tensions frequently escalate following xenophobic incidents, the commercial ties between the two nations have demonstrated notable strength.

South Africa continues to be Nigeria’s largest trading partner in Africa, while Nigeria remains a key destination for South African investments on the continent.

Over the last twenty years, South African companies have invested billions of dollars in Nigeria, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, banking, insurance, manufacturing, and media.

MTN Nigeria, for instance, caters to tens of millions of subscribers and significantly contributes to government revenue through taxes, spectrum fees, and other mandatory payments. MultiChoice has revolutionized the pay television industry in Africa, and South African financial institutions are vital players in Nigeria’s banking landscape.

Despite the recent diplomatic strains, trade between the two countries has persisted, indicating that businesses often distinguish political disputes from commercial realities.

However, economists caution that this resilience should not be confused with immunity.

Investor confidence relies not only on the size of the market but also on factors such as political stability, legal certainty, and the safety of individuals and assets.

Recurring images of burning shops, terrified migrants, and emergency evacuations gradually influence international risk perceptions.

In the realm of global investment, perception can wield power comparable to that of reality.

—End of Part One—