Fighting has erupted again in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region, threatening to unravel the 2022 peace agreement that ended the country’s devastating two-year civil war and raising concerns that the renewed conflict could spread beyond the region.

Forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched a major offensive against Ethiopia’s federal government on Wednesday, September 23, according to Reuters. The escalation included clashes in Tigray as well as neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions.

The Tigrayan forces also seized control of three civilian airports  Mekelle, Axum and Shire, according to the African Union, disrupting air services and prompting further concern over the rapidly deteriorating security situation.

The renewed fighting comes nearly four years after the signing of the Pretoria Agreement on November 2, 2022. The agreement formally ended the 2020–2022 war between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal forces, a conflict that caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread displacement.

The Pretoria peace process had already come under significant pressure in recent months, with the federal government and Tigrayan authorities accusing each other of violating the agreement.

Reuters reported that tensions intensified after divisions within the TPLF and the emergence of a hardline faction that reasserted control over the regional administration. In May, the TPLF regained control of Tigray’s political administration, a move the federal government regarded as contrary to the 2022 agreement.

The latest escalation also follows the formation of a new alliance of seven Ethiopian armed and opposition groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The alliance includes the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement, groups that were on opposing sides during the previous Tigray conflict. Other members are linked to Oromia, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz and other parts of Ethiopia.

The renewed fighting is also unfolding against a backdrop of deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of providing financial support to members of the new armed alliance, allegations that Eritrea has repeatedly denied. The two countries fought alongside each other during much of the 2020–2022 Tigray war, but their relationship has deteriorated since the Pretoria agreement.

Access to the Red Sea has emerged as another source of tension. Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly stressed the strategic importance of obtaining reliable access to the sea, while Eritrea has expressed concerns over Ethiopia’s intentions regarding its territory and ports.

The latest crisis comes at a particularly sensitive time for the Horn of Africa, where neighbouring Sudan is experiencing a major civil war and Somalia continues to face security challenges.

Reuters reported that diplomats are concerned a renewed Tigray conflict could no longer remain an isolated Ethiopian confrontation, given the region’s overlapping political, military and economic tensions.

The African Union has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urged both sides to return to direct talks under the Pretoria Agreement. AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf also called on neighbouring countries to avoid actions that could contribute to further escalation.

The AU has asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, its High Representative for the Horn of Africa, to urgently engage the parties and support diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has similarly called for an immediate de-escalation and warned of the consequences of a return to widespread conflict.

As fighting continues, the immediate concern is whether the latest clashes will remain limited or develop into a broader confrontation involving other Ethiopian armed groups and neighbouring countries. For now, regional and international actors are pressing the federal government and Tigrayan authorities to halt the escalation and return to the peace framework that ended the previous war.