Political activities across Nigeria have intensified ahead of the May 18, 2026 governorship primaries of the All Progressives Congress, with aspirants and party stakeholders engaging in strategic alignments that could redefine internal power structures within the ruling party.
From consensus-driven arrangements in some states to fierce behind-the-scenes negotiations in others, the race for party tickets is exposing shifting loyalties and testing long-standing alliances.
While states like Ogun appear to have embraced a unified approach, Lagos remains the focal point of intrigue, with competing blocs and unresolved calculations shaping the contest.
In Ogun State, party leaders have coalesced around Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola as a consensus candidate, signalling a deliberate effort to avoid divisive primaries.
The move reflects a broader strategy within the party to maintain cohesion in states where internal disagreements could weaken electoral prospects.
By contrast, the situation in Lagos is markedly complex. Early reports suggesting the emergence of a consensus candidate were swiftly rejected by influential stakeholders, particularly within the Mandate Group, who described such claims as premature.
The state chapter continues to witness intense negotiations, with no clear agreement yet in sight.
At the centre of the unfolding contest is the Deputy Governor of Lagos State, Obafemi Hamzat, whose candidacy has steadily gathered momentum within key party circles.
While some insiders claim that President Bola Tinubu and the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC) are favourably disposed to his ambition, others argue that his strength lies primarily in the backing of the Justice Forum, a dominant APC bloc led by Tajudeen Olusi.
Despite conflicting narratives, observers within the party increasingly view Hamzat as holding a strategic advantage. In addition to strong support from the Justice Forum, a faction of the Mandate Group led by Abdullahi Enilolobo is reportedly backing his bid, alongside a growing number of unaffiliated stakeholders.
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Analysts attribute these dynamics to the historical role of political blocs in Lagos politics. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the Justice Forum and the Mandate Group have served as the primary vehicles for political mobilisation and candidate selection within the state.
Their endorsements have traditionally been critical in determining who emerges as the party’s flagbearer, often requiring final ratification by Tinubu, widely regarded as the central figure in Lagos APC politics.
Tinubu himself rose to power in 1999 through the Justice Forum, in alliance with the pan-Yoruba group Afenifere.
Over time, the Mandate Group evolved into a co-dominant force, creating a dual power structure that has shaped Lagos politics for over two decades.
However, recent developments indicate a shift in this balance. The Mandate Group, once a formidable political machine under the influence of former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola and late Senator Adebayo Osinowo, has experienced a decline in cohesion following internal disputes and leadership struggles.
The fallout between Aregbesola and Tinubu, coupled with Osinowo’s death, created a vacuum that competing interests have struggled to fill.
Attempts to reassert control have instead deepened divisions, particularly between Enilolobo and Lagos State House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, resulting in factionalisation within the group.
This fragmentation has weakened the Mandate Group’s influence, a trend that became evident during recent local government elections and subsequent political appointments, where the Justice Forum reportedly dominated decision-making processes.
The defection of key figures such as James Faleke from the Mandate Group to the Justice Forum further reinforced the latter’s organisational strength and reach.
Against this backdrop, Hamzat’s candidate appears to benefit from the evolving political landscape. With the Justice Forum maintaining a unified structure and the Mandate Group grappling with internal discord, party insiders suggest there is currently no equally cohesive bloc capable of mounting a strong challenge.
“This is about structure and organisation,” a party source noted, emphasising that the Justice Forum presently holds the most effective political machinery within the Lagos APC.
Nevertheless, analysts caution that the final outcome may still hinge on Tinubu’s position. Historically, the President has balanced bloc preferences with strategic considerations, occasionally intervening when alternative candidates present compelling support bases.
Other aspirants, including former governor Akinwunmi Ambode and Senator Tokunbo Abiru, face their own challenges. Ambode’s potential return bid has reportedly lost momentum amid internal disunity, while Abiru’s perceived long-term tenure prospects raise concerns among stakeholders about future succession dynamics.
Religious considerations have also surfaced, with some party stakeholders advocating for a Muslim candidate after 12 consecutive years of Christian leadership under Ambode and incumbent governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
Meanwhile, speculation persists over possible political scenarios that could reshape the race, including discussions about a mid-term transition that might favour Hamzat’s emergence before the 2027 elections.
Despite these developments, party leadership has sought to downplay claims of predetermined outcomes. APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda has reiterated that President Tinubu supports a transparent process, allowing party members to decide where consensus fails. Similarly, Lagos APC Chairman Cornelius Ojelabi has denied any formal endorsement of a candidate.
As the countdown to the primaries continues, Lagos remains a critical battleground where entrenched interests, evolving alliances, and last-minute political manoeuvres could ultimately determine the APC’s governorship flagbearer in one of Nigeria’s most politically significant states