‘Magic seeds’ to more hunger: The troubled legacy of Gates’ Africa plan

A two-decade agricultural initiative backed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation has come under renewed scrutiny after a new analysis found that its flagship Green Revolution approach has fallen significantly short of its original targets.

The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), launched 20 years ago, promoted improved seeds, synthetic fertilisers, mechanisation and commercial markets as a pathway to doubling crop yields and farmer incomes while cutting hunger across Africa.

However, a working paper by Timothy A. Wise of Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute, based on 18 years of United Nations and World Bank data covering 2006 to 2024, found that results across AGRA’s 13 focus countries have been mixed and, in some areas, significantly below expectations.

According to the analysis, fertiliser use more than doubled while cultivated land expanded by 46%. Yet yields of major staple crops increased by only 25%, far below AGRA’s target of doubling yields.

Annual staple-crop yield growth stood at 1.2%, slightly below the 1.3% recorded in the 12 years before AGRA’s launch. Growth slowed further to about 0.4% annually during the most recent six-year period examined.

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More concerning, the analysis found that the number of chronically undernourished people increased by an average of 58% across the 13 AGRA countries.

The findings were highlighted in a new report by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), which declared that the Green Revolution model had failed to deliver the transformation promised to the continent.

AGRA has acknowledged that hunger has increased and that farmers are not yet prospering, while saying the gains achieved over two decades have not amounted to full transformation.

The organisation nevertheless maintains that African agriculture has recorded significant progress and continues to advocate a market-oriented approach built around improved productivity, investment and commercial value chains.

AGRA’s supporters also point to broader agricultural growth across Africa, including rising agricultural output and economic value. Critics, however, argue that such figures do not necessarily demonstrate improved incomes or reduced hunger among smallholder farmers.

Zambia provides one example cited by the critics. While fertiliser use increased by 155%, maize yields rose by only 14%, while land devoted to millet declined by 42% and sorghum production fell by 62%. The number of undernourished people in the country increased by 33%.

Malawi recorded a 78% increase in staple-crop yields between 2006 and 2024, but chronic undernourishment still rose by 61%.

In Kenya, staple-crop yields reportedly fell by 8% since AGRA began, while the number of undernourished people more than doubled.

Critics argue that the emphasis on commercial crops such as maize and rice has also displaced traditional crops, including millet and sorghum, which can be more resilient to drought, heat and poor soils.

They further warn that increased agricultural production through expansion of farmland can contribute to deforestation, biodiversity loss and carbon emissions.

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AGRA officials have attributed rising hunger partly to external shocks, including conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic and increases in food and fertiliser prices. The organisation also acknowledged that agricultural expansion remains an environmental concern.

The debate comes as AGRA and its partners continue to promote increased investment in African food systems. The initiative has attracted more than $1.5 billion in donations, with about two-thirds coming from the Gates Foundation, while governments in AGRA countries have spent an estimated $1 billion annually subsidising fertiliser and other agricultural inputs.

Critics, including AFSA, are calling instead for greater investment in agroecological farming, healthier soils, farmer-managed seed systems, diversified production, local processing and regional food markets.

They argue that Africa’s food crisis is not simply a technology or production problem, but also one of access, affordability, inequality and control over agricultural resources.

With AGRA continuing to influence agricultural policies and investment strategies across the continent, its 20-year record is likely to fuel an intensifying debate over whether Africa should deepen the Green Revolution model or pursue a more farmer-led and agroecological approach.