The economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on Nigeria could extend far beyond higher crude oil revenues, with disruptions to global fertilizer supplies, energy markets and shipping threatening to increase the cost of food production and transportation across the country.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) said Nigeria is being exposed to the crisis through three interconnected channels, fuel, fertilizer and food, despite the country’s growing capacity to produce refined petroleum products and fertilizer locally.

The closure and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major global trade route, have contributed to sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices. IFPRI estimates that around one-third of global urea exports originate from the Middle East, while significant volumes of other fertilizer products also pass through the region.

Although Nigeria has expanded domestic fertilizer production through facilities such as the Dangote Fertiliser complex and Indorama, the country remains dependent on imported inputs including potash, phosphate and other raw materials required for fertilizer blending.

According to IFPRI, urea prices roughly doubled within weeks after restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified in early 2026. While prices subsequently eased somewhat, continued supply constraints have kept upward pressure on the global fertilizer market.

The development could have serious implications for Nigerian farmers. Higher fertilizer prices may force some farmers to reduce the quantity of fertilizer they apply or cut back on cultivated land, potentially lowering crop yields if the disruption persists.

A reduction in agricultural productivity could eventually tighten supplies of food commodities and put additional pressure on prices paid by consumers.

The second major concern is transportation.

Food produced in Nigeria’s agricultural regions still has to travel long distances by road before reaching major consumption centres such as Lagos, Ibadan, Port Harcourt and other urban markets.

Higher energy prices increase the cost of transporting, processing, storing and distributing agricultural products. IFPRI research on Nigeria’s 2026 geopolitical energy shock found that higher fuel prices were transmitted rapidly into food markets, with notable effects on commodities including local and imported rice, wheat flour and garri.

The institute’s modelling also found that the shock could have significant consequences for household welfare, including increases in food poverty and undernourishment, particularly if higher prices persist.

The crisis presents Nigeria with a difficult economic paradox.

As a major oil producer, Nigeria could benefit from higher international crude prices through increased export earnings and improved government revenues. The country also has expanding domestic refining and fertilizer production capacity, giving it some protection against global supply disruptions.

However, higher international energy prices can simultaneously increase domestic production and transportation costs.

This means that additional government revenue from crude oil exports may not immediately translate into cheaper food for households. Instead, consumers could continue to face higher prices for staple foods, while farmers struggle with rising input costs.

IFPRI researchers say the current crisis highlights the need for Nigeria to reduce its vulnerability to international commodity and shipping disruptions.

Measures could include securing more reliable supplies of imported fertilizer raw materials, expanding access to affordable farm inputs and increasing investment in domestic fertilizer production.

Improving agricultural transportation infrastructure is also considered crucial. Greater use of rail for moving agricultural commodities could eventually reduce the sector’s dependence on diesel-powered trucks and lower the cost of transporting food from production areas to major cities.

The current crisis also presents an opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production and develop regional markets for its energy and agricultural products, IFPRI said.

For Nigerian households, however, the immediate concern is much simpler: whether rising global energy and fertilizer costs will eventually show up in the price of food on the market.

If the disruptions persist, the impact of the Middle East conflict could therefore be felt not only through Nigeria’s oil revenues, but also through the everyday cost of feeding families.