Oil prices tumble 6% as Trump signals “final stages” of US–Iran peace talks

Global oil markets fell sharply on Wednesday, with prices sliding around 6% after US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were entering their “final stages,” raising hopes of a potential easing in a weeks-long geopolitical crisis that has disrupted global energy flows.

Brent crude dropped $6.64, or nearly 6%, to settle at $104.64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $6.49 to $97.66, slipping below the $100 mark for the first time in recent weeks.

The decline marks a sudden reversal from earlier in the month, when Brent had surged above $111 per barrel amid escalating tensions and fears of prolonged supply disruptions linked to the US–Iran confrontation.

The sell-off was driven largely by comments from Trump indicating that a possible agreement with Tehran was close, though he warned that Washington remains prepared to resume military action if talks collapse.

Iranian officials have reportedly signaled conditional openness to a deal, while also cautioning that renewed US strikes could significantly widen the conflict.

The shift in tone prompted traders to unwind risk premiums that had built up during weeks of uncertainty, triggering broad profit-taking across energy markets.

Despite the price drop, analysts caution that underlying supply risks remain unresolved, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route that has seen severely reduced traffic during the conflict.

Although a small number of tankers have reportedly resumed passage, overall maritime movement remains far below normal levels, keeping global supply chains under strain.

Before the disruption, more than 100 vessels typically passed through the waterway daily. That figure has fallen sharply amid security concerns and ongoing regional instability.

Energy market analysts say the recent decline may reflect short-term sentiment rather than a lasting shift in fundamentals.

They point to tight global inventories, production constraints among OPEC+ members, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty as factors likely to keep prices volatile.

Some forecasts had previously suggested that crude could spike significantly higher if the conflict escalated further or if shipping routes were fully blocked for an extended period.

While diplomatic progress has eased immediate fears, traders remain cautious, noting that any breakdown in talks could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into crude prices.

For now, the oil market remains highly sensitive to political signals, with prices swinging sharply between hopes of de-escalation and fears of renewed conflict.