Osuntokun: Opposition divisions, power rotation disputes May favour APC in 2027

Former Director-General of the Obi-Datti Presidential Campaign Council, Akin Osuntokun, has said deep ideological differences and disputes over power rotation could make it difficult for opposition parties to rally behind a single candidate in the 2027 presidential election.

Osuntokun, who served as Political Adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, spoke in an interview where he assessed the state of the opposition, the future of the so-called “third force,” and internal crises within the Labour Party.

Reacting to suggestions that the third-force experiment had collapsed following political realignments, Osuntokun dismissed claims that he had defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), clarifying that he is not a member of any political party.

He questioned the premise of a “third force,” noting that apart from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), it was unclear which other party could be considered firmly established enough to constitute a dominant bloc.

On the movement of the 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, from the Labour Party to the ADC and subsequently to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Osuntokun said the decisions were driven by practical considerations.

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According to him, the ADC was unwilling to zone its presidential ticket to the South, a factor he described as critical in determining primary election outcomes in Nigeria. He argued that without zoning, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would have had a clear advantage in the party’s primaries.

Osuntokun added that Obi’s position was vindicated by the NDC’s declaration that its presidential ticket had been zoned to the South.

Addressing concerns that Obi, Atiku, and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso running on separate platforms could hand victory to the APC, Osuntokun described such fears as “conventional wisdom” but acknowledged that the ruling party holds structural advantages.

He cited the APC’s control of a majority of state governors as a significant political asset.

“The opposition cannot unite behind a single candidate because they have conflicting visions of where Nigeria is headed,” he said, pointing particularly to disagreements over power rotation. He noted that remaining within the ADC coalition could have meant Obi accepting a vice-presidential slot, a compromise he suggested would have conflicted with Obi’s principles.

Osuntokun also revisited the internal challenges faced within the Labour Party during the 2023 campaign, alleging that some members of the party’s national and state structures were more interested in financial gain than electoral success.

He claimed that party officials frustrated reform efforts and engaged in practices that undermined the campaign. Referring to former party chairman Julius Abure, Osuntokun alleged internal subversion and irregularities, including the submission of questionable polling agent lists for payment of allowances.

He said due diligence conducted by Obi’s associates reportedly revealed that a significant portion of the listed polling agents were non-existent.

Despite the internal disputes, Osuntokun insisted that the “Obidient” movement remains loyal to Obi and is not synonymous with any particular political party.

On broader electoral reforms, Osuntokun argued that Nigeria’s challenges are systemic, describing institutions such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary as symptoms of deeper structural problems.

He maintained that the concentration of power at the centre places enormous pressure on institutions, particularly because the presidency wields expansive constitutional authority.

According to him, meaningful reform would require constitutional restructuring to align with genuine federalism and decentralisation.