Tinubu edges Obi in new poll as 2027 race tightens

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has narrowly defeated Peter Obi in a new national online opinion poll, leading the Labour Party candidate by 1,067 responses in a contest involving 69,110 approved participants.

The Oxford Metro Analytics National Trust Poll gave Tinubu 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi polled 23,402 responses, or 33.86 per cent. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar placed third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent.

The 1.54 percentage-point gap between Tinubu and Obi highlights the competitiveness of the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, while 638 participants said they did not trust any candidate. Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde polled 519, former President Goodluck Jonathan 284, while 204 respondents remained undecided and 122 selected other candidates.

The regional breakdown showed a divided political landscape. Tinubu led in the North-West, North-Central and South-West, while Atiku dominated the North-East and Obi led in the South-East and South-South.

Tinubu’s strongest regional performance came from the South-West, where he secured 10,968 of 25,199 responses, representing 43.53 per cent. Obi followed with 7,788 responses.

In the North-Central, Tinubu polled 6,370 of 17,228 responses, or 36.97 per cent, ahead of Obi’s 5,364. He also led the North-West with 4,129 responses, compared with Atiku’s 3,775.

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Obi recorded his strongest showing in the South-East, securing 5,796 of 9,061 responses, or 63.97 per cent. He also led the South-South with 2,389 of 5,760 responses.

Atiku’s strongest performance was in the North-East, where he secured 1,235 of 2,227 responses, representing 55.46 per cent.

At state level, Tinubu led in 21 of the 37 states and the Federal Capital Territory reporting areas, while Obi and Atiku each led in eight.

Lagos produced Tinubu’s largest state-level tally, with 9,265 of 21,956 responses. Obi recorded overwhelming leads in parts of the South-East, including Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Enugu and Imo. Atiku dominated Kebbi and Nasarawa.

The poll also produced extremely close contests. In Kogi, Tinubu led Atiku by just one response—39 to 38. In the FCT, Tinubu polled 5,599 against Obi’s 5,278, while Rivers recorded 975 responses for Tinubu and 892 for Obi.

However, Oxford Metro Analytics cautioned against treating the findings as a scientific prediction of the 2027 election outcome.

The organisation said the exercise was an open, voluntary and self-selected online public pulse poll, without demographic, population or projected-turnout weighting. It said measures were deployed to limit duplicate and suspicious submissions but acknowledged that such controls could not make the poll representative of Nigeria’s entire electorate.

The uneven distribution of responses was also significant, with Lagos and the FCT accounting for more than half of the national dataset, while some states recorded fewer than 100 responses.