Tinubu’s political strategy, Osun victory and the changing face of Nigeria’s democracy

The outcome of the 2026 Osun State governorship election has reignited debate over President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political strategy, the strength of opposition parties and the evolving character of Nigeria’s democracy ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The election, which produced Governor Ademola Adeleke as the winner on the platform of the Accord Party, has been described by political observers as an important development in Nigeria’s recent electoral history.

For some analysts, the result provides evidence that opposition parties can still win elections despite the dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the federal level.

One political commentator, while assessing the development, described President Tinubu as “a smart politician” and one who understands the importance of political generosity and strategic accommodation.

According to the commentator, smartness and generosity are two qualities that have historically helped successful politicians build durable political structures.

“Asiwaju is a smart politician, very smart and generous. There is nothing he cannot give away,” the commentator said, arguing that political flexibility and the ability to accommodate competing interests remain important tools in Nigeria’s complex political environment.

Political analysts, however, say the description of Tinubu as politically smart should not be viewed simply as praise but as an assessment of his ability to navigate Nigeria’s complicated political landscape.

Osun election and the one-party-state debate

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The outcome of the Osun election has also provided fresh ammunition for those challenging the argument that Nigeria is gradually becoming a one-party state.

Political scientist and public affairs analyst, Dr. Adewale Oladipo, said the results of recent governorship elections should be considered when assessing the health of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy.

According to him, the fact that different political parties have won the three most recent governorship elections demonstrates that electoral competition remains possible.

“The argument that Nigeria has already become a one-party state is difficult to sustain when you look at the governorship results across the states,” Oladipo said.

He noted that the three latest governorship contests produced victories for three different political parties: the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in Anambra State, the APC in Ekiti State and the Accord Party in Osun State

“Whatever political advantages the ruling party may have at the centre, these results show that voters can still make different choices at the state level,” he added.

The Osun result, in particular, is significant because of the political importance of the state and the intensity of the contest.

Adeleke’s victory demonstrates that opposition candidates can still mobilise voters and overcome the advantages associated with incumbency and federal political influence, analysts said.

Democracy still competitive, analysts argue

Another political analyst, Prof. Ibrahim Suleiman, cautioned against drawing the conclusion that Nigeria’s democracy is either completely healthy or completely compromised based solely on individual election outcomes.

He said the recent results should instead be seen as evidence of a political system that remains contested, although challenges surrounding electoral integrity, institutional independence, campaign financing and political influence persist.

“Winning an election is important, but the broader democratic question involves the fairness of the process, the credibility of institutions and whether citizens feel genuinely free to choose their leaders,” Suleiman explained.

He said the emergence of different political parties in recent governorship elections was nevertheless a positive development because it demonstrated that voters were not necessarily voting along a single national partisan line.

According to him, “The electorate can surprise political parties. A party that is dominant nationally may still lose a state election if it fails to connect with voters at the local level.”

Tinubu’s political calculations

Political analysts also believe President Tinubu’s approach to political relationships could become increasingly important as the country moves towards 2027.

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A Lagos-based political strategist, Kunle Adebayo, said Tinubu’s political style has traditionally involved building alliances across political divides and maintaining relationships with political actors even when they belong to opposing parties.

He described this as an important element of political strategy in a country where alliances can shift rapidly.

“Politics is not only about winning elections. It is also about building relationships, negotiating and keeping channels of communication open,” Adebayo said.

He argued that Tinubu’s willingness to engage politicians outside his immediate political camp could be interpreted as a strategy aimed at broadening his political reach.

However, he cautioned that political generosity and strategic alliances must ultimately be measured by their impact on governance and the electorate.

The 2027 presidential contest

The political significance of the Osun election extends beyond the state, particularly as political parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 general elections.

Analysts expect the presidential contest to generate intense negotiations, defections, coalition-building and realignment across the country’s major political parties.

While recent governorship elections have demonstrated the ability of opposition parties to win at the state level, political observers note that presidential elections operate under a different set of dynamics.

The size of the country, the structure of presidential campaigns, access to nationwide political networks and the ability to build broad regional alliances will all play major roles in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

Adebayo said opposition parties would need to move beyond simply criticising the ruling party if they hope to mount a credible challenge in 2027.

“They need strong candidates, effective structures, credible messaging and the ability to unite voters across regional and demographic lines,” he said.

International perception of Nigeria’s democracy

The recent governorship outcomes could also influence how Nigeria’s democratic process is perceived internationally.

The ability of different political parties to win elections in different states provides a counterpoint to concerns that political competition is disappearing from the country.

According to international affairs analyst Dr. Funmi Adegbite, the credibility of Nigeria’s elections will continue to be judged not only by who wins but also by the competitiveness of the process.

“Nigeria remains an important democratic reference point in Africa. Every election is therefore closely watched by international observers and partners,” she said.

Adegbite noted that peaceful transitions, competitive contests and acceptance of legitimate electoral outcomes could strengthen Nigeria’s democratic image.

However, she stressed that political parties and institutions must continue to address concerns over electoral violence, voter inducement, abuse of state resources and public confidence in the electoral process.