More than three years after President Bola Tinubu introduced sweeping economic reforms, Nigeria is showing signs of greater macroeconomic stability, but the benefits remain unevenly distributed.

The removal of petrol subsidies, changes to the foreign exchange regime and fiscal reforms were presented as necessary measures to address longstanding economic distortions, strengthen government finances and attract investment.

The reforms have produced some measurable gains. The International Monetary Fund says Nigeria’s reforms have improved macroeconomic outcomes, strengthened external buffers and enhanced the functioning of the foreign exchange market. It projects economic growth of 4.1 per cent in 2026.

But for many households, the adjustment has come with a steep cost.

The IMF estimates that poverty reached 63 per cent and that about 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025, highlighting the gap between improving economic indicators and living conditions.

One of the clearest effects of the reforms has been an improvement in government finances.

The removal of petrol subsidies eliminated a major fiscal burden, while changes to the foreign exchange system and efforts to improve revenue collection have strengthened government revenues.

The Federal Government has argued that the additional resources are being redirected towards infrastructure, healthcare, education, security and social investment.

States have also benefited from increased allocations from the Federation Account, providing additional funds for salaries, pensions, infrastructure and other public obligations.

The central question, however, is whether increased government revenue will ultimately translate into better public services and higher living standards for citizens.

Nigeria’s domestic refining industry has emerged as one of the major structural beneficiaries of the changing economic environment.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become a major player in the domestic fuel market and is helping to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products. The IMF says the rise in domestic refining has contributed to a sharp decline in refined fuel imports.

The refinery is also planning further expansion, with its owners targeting capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day within three years.

The development could have wider implications for Nigeria’s energy security, foreign exchange demand and position in the regional petroleum market.

The financial sector has also benefited from the post-reform environment.

Foreign exchange market reforms have allowed banks and other financial institutions to operate in a more unified market, while higher interest rates have created opportunities for investors in fixed-income assets.

However, the same high-interest-rate environment has increased the cost of borrowing for households and businesses.

This has created a divide between investors with capital to deploy and small businesses that require affordable credit to survive and expand.

For ordinary Nigerians, the most visible consequence of the reforms has been the sharp increase in the cost of living.

The removal of the petrol subsidy in 2023 caused fuel prices to rise sharply, with the increase quickly feeding into transportation, food distribution and other household expenses.

The impact remains evident three years later.

A recent Reuters report found that millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with high food and fuel costs despite signs of improvement in the wider economy. The report noted that many households remain excluded from gains in financial markets and face limited access to affordable credit.

For workers whose salaries have not increased at the same pace as living costs, the result has been a decline in real purchasing power.

Small businesses have faced similar pressures, particularly those dependent on petrol or diesel generators, transportation and imported inputs.

The reforms have therefore produced a complicated picture.

On one side, government finances are stronger, foreign exchange market conditions have improved, domestic refining capacity has expanded and investor confidence has recovered in some areas.

On the other, millions of households are still struggling with food prices, transportation costs, housing expenses and expensive credit.

The IMF has warned that higher food, fuel and fertilizer prices could continue to create inflationary pressure and worsen poverty and food insecurity, even as the broader economy expands.

The long-term success of the reforms will ultimately be measured not only by government revenue, GDP growth or foreign investment, but by whether those gains translate into better living conditions.

That means improved electricity supply, affordable transportation, better healthcare and education, more productive jobs, stronger social protection and greater access to affordable credit.

The Federal Government maintains that the difficult measures are laying the foundation for a stronger economy. President Tinubu has described the reforms as necessary steps towards addressing Nigeria’s longstanding structural weaknesses.

The challenge now is converting macroeconomic stability into tangible household prosperity.

For many Nigerians, the question is no longer whether the reforms are changing the economy.

It is whether they will eventually feel like beneficiaries of that change.