Why Bola Tinubu may not win APC 2023 presidential primaries

All Progressives Congress (APC) national leader, Bola Tinubu, is unquestionably one of Nigeria’s most widely held political favourites to succeed Muhammadu Buhari. The former governor of Lagos state’s network of support has grown daily since he revealed his desire to run for President in 2023.

The leader of the APC has already garnered huge support across the country, making him look to be in a commanding position in the campaign for the presidency in 2023. The fact that Tinubu’s supporters are distributed across the country doesn’t mean he would get the party’s presidential nomination in 2023.

It’s worth noting that a couple of months ago, President Muhammadu Buhari, the APC’s most powerful member, declined to sign the Electoral Bill, citing the National Assembly’s inability to provide the option for political parties to choose between a direct or indirect primary election. According to recent reports, the National Assembly eventually revised and resubmit the Bill, which the President has signed into law.

Even though many people may be asking what the Bill has to do with Bola Tinubu’s presidential aspirations in 2023, I believe that including the option for indirect primaries, is where the Amended Electoral Bill, would play a vital role. Because President Muhammadu Buhari has stated that direct primaries will cost a lot, the party is likely to use indirect primaries.

Although Bola Tinubu has many followers, he may not be able to gain the party’s nomination if the APC eventually adopts indirect primaries (which I believe they will). Because many of these followers won’t be able to vote in the primary, this is the main reason why. There are also other factors to consider, including the role the party’s cabal, which has previously been claimed to be working against the APC leader, will have in the selection of delegate candidates and the party’s flag-bearer.