Wike opens up on G5 strategy, says Obi’s 2023 support base has shifted

The political calculations that helped Peter Obi make significant gains in parts of southern Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election are now being called into question, with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike claiming that the former Labour Party candidate no longer enjoys the same level of support in the South-East ahead of 2027.

Wike made the claim during a September 21, 2026 appearance on TVC News’ Journalists’ Hangout, where he discussed the emerging alliances and strategies ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The minister’s comments offer a fresh account of the role played by the G5 governors — the group of five Peoples Democratic Party governors that included Wike, Seyi Makinde, Samuel Ortom, Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi — in shaping the 2023 contest.

According to Wike, the group’s opposition to the presidential bid of then-PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar influenced its political strategy in the South-South. He said the governors recognised the PDP’s strength in the region but were concerned that allowing Atiku to consolidate that support could strengthen his presidential bid.

“How did he win? We in the G5, we said we have a strategy,” Wike said, explaining that the group deliberately allowed Obi to benefit in some states rather than allow Atiku to take those votes.

Wike specifically mentioned Edo and Cross River, saying the strategy was intended to limit Atiku’s advantage rather than constitute a direct endorsement of Obi’s presidential campaign.

“Our problem will be Atiku. Therefore, instead of Atiku to take it, let it go to the Labour Party. That was our strategy,” he said.

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The minister said Rivers State was treated differently because of the political implications he believed an Obi victory could create.

“It was only Rivers I said no, we have a problem here in Rivers, Obi will not win here because if he wins, he sends a signal somewhere they may not understand it,” Wike said.

Wike now argues that the political environment that produced Obi’s 2023 performance has changed. He questioned how the NDC candidate would reproduce those gains in states such as Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Delta in 2027.

“In Cross River now, how will Obi win? In Akwa Ibom, how will he win? In Delta, how will he win?” he asked.

He also rejected the use of large crowds at rallies as a measure of electoral strength, arguing that political support should be assessed through actual electoral structures and voting behaviour rather than public gatherings.

“If you are using based on the fact that there are rallies, then you are making a very big mistake,” Wike said.

His assessment comes against the backdrop of a changed political configuration ahead of 2027, with Obi now contesting under the Nigeria Democratic Congress after finishing third in the 2023 presidential election as the Labour Party candidate. Current reporting confirms Obi’s NDC candidacy.

Wike further argued that issues that shaped the 2023 campaign, including the controversy surrounding the APC’s Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, no longer carry the same political weight.

He ultimately urged Obi to look beyond the 2027 contest and prepare for 2031, while expressing support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.

Wike’s claims, however, remain his political assessment of the evolving electorate and should not be treated as an independently established measure of Obi’s current support. The 2027 election has yet to take place, and the extent to which the political alignments of 2023 will be reproduced remains a matter for voters and the eventual electoral results to determine.