2019: Buhari may dump South West

• As Kalu, Nnamani, Oshiomhole, Amosun jostle for VP slot

By DANLADI USMAN, Abuja

THE build-up to 2019 general elections is accelerating fast with indicators of certain state actors who may fall victim of new political realignments from the current power structure in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). National Daily gathered that if the ongoing negotiations by several political leaders for new power formations are sustained till 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari may have to dump both the South-West and Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo for another political ally from any other power bloc.

Reliable sources from the APC National Secretariat, Abuja, revealed that the President is already developing the suspicion that he may not garner sufficient bloc votes from the South-West in 2019 as he did in 2015, considering the current protests from the zone over perceived exclusion of its reputable leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, from government activities and influence in the APC. Invariably, there are strong indications that the mainarm of the ruling political party, which is the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), may pull out of the APC alliance before 2019.

While inter-party negotiations are going on among political leaders for new party formations, President Buhari was said to be considering shifting alliances to either the South-East or the South-South from the South-West.

It is within the consideration for a new alliance with another power bloc that the President is also considering picking another vice presidential candidate from the new allies.

Apparently, former Governor of Abia State, Orji Uzor Kalu, who defected recently from the Progressives People’s Alliance (PPA) to the APC, was gathered to be one of those being considered to replace Osinbajo in 2019. It was gathered that the former Abia Governor was lobbied to defect to the APC in order to integrate the South-East into the ruling party and deepen the party in the zone.

Kalu midwifed the formation of the PPA after defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the on which he was governor for eight years.

Besides Kalu, President Buhari was said to have found new love in the former President of the Senate, Ken Nnamani, in the efforts to deepen the penetration of the APC in the South-East. Nnamani has since been appointed by the President to head a Committee on electoral reforms. The former senate president is considered an alternative option for Vice-President in 2019 in the South-East.

Both Kalu and Nnamani have high political capital but are not known to have strong political structures in modern politics of the country. Kalu’s political structure suffered devastating deconstruction in the eight years of Governor Theodore A. Orji in Abia State. Since then, he has not been able to rebuild the dismantled structures even in his contest for the senate. Kalu is, however, a strong voice in Igbo land. Nnamani is more of a liberal politician but wields influence in political partisanship relying on his goodwill as a former Senate President who led the National Assembly to truncate the third term ambition of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Furthermore, it was revealed that President Buhari has also been trying to penetrate the South-South to restore the ancient North/South-South alliance that prevailed in the days of Alhaji Ahmadu Bello and Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa in the 1960s and Alhaji Shehu Shagari and his team in the late 1970s into the 1980s.

As was in the past, when the North/South-South alliance was concentrated in the ocean belt states like Rivers and Cross River, President Buhari is perceived to be looking towards the upper land in the state. Perhaps, the political potency of Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State which has overwhelmed the Minister of Transport, Chibuike Amaechi, may have compelled the President and his strategists to be looking in the direction of the APC national chairman, Chief john Odigie-Oyegun; the former Edo State Governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, to consolidate the party in the South-South.

However, APC-Government at the centre has been doing everything possible to emasculate Governor Wike’s political efficacy in Rivers to use the state as springboard to overrun the Niger Delta zone.

Accordingly, Oshiomhole was gathered to be on the list of those likely to replace the current Vice- President. The leadership charisma and the labour union leadership instinct are considered valuable political assets to exploit from Oshiomhole.

It was revealed that the outcome of the December 10 re-run legislative elections in Rivers, if the APC coasts to victory, may redeem the political rating of Amaechi and restore his bargaining power from the South-South political clime in the APC. Thus, the Transport Minister may redeem his chances of joining the race for the Vice-President in 2019.

Invariably, the last Saturday rescheduled elections were an acid test for Amaechi.

Party sources further disclosed that President Buhari still has a soft spot for Governor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State. The sources revealed that Amosun is being positioned by the President as replacement for Tinubu in building a new power bloc in the South-West.

There is the calculation that if the current plan to establish new power structure in the region succeeds, Amosun will lead that political squad which may make the President rebuild his confidence in his alliance with the region, thus, Amosun could be considered for the second position to retain the South-West partake in the party’s power sharing. It was, however, gathered that the chances of continuing the South-West alliance are very slim.

Even though the APC national leader from the south west, Asiwaju Tinubu, was reported to have reassured that he will not dump APC for any other political party, the apprehension is so high that the President cannot rely on that report. This is more so since Tinubu jetted out of the country at a time APC leaders were trying to reconcile the impasse between the party leaders that heralded the Ondo State Governorship Election on Saturday, November 26, 2016.

Amosun has been a political ally of President Buhari from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) days, as far back as 2002. Amosun had contested for Governor of Ogun State on the ANPP platform on two occasions without success until he aligned with ACN which dissolved into the amalgams of the APC. Amosun, however, has developed strong political structure on Ogun State which established him as a political authority in the state. The President was said to have strong confidence in Amosun.

It was revealed to National Daily that President Buhari has not been comfortable with the protests arising from the South-West over perceived marginalization of their leader, Tinubu. This is more so, as Tinubu is alleged to have opened negotiations with former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar to form a new alliance and possibly float a new political party. This seeming political quagmire is being exacerbated by the innuendoes that President Buhari is creating new leaders among the political appointees from the region.

There have been domestic plots by the home-based politicians to frustrate or neutralize the efficacy of the so-called new political leaders in Yorubaland.

Our investigations revealed that this has sent a strong message to the President that there will be high disconnect or divided votes against the ruling APC in 2019. The fear of protest votes, particularly, from the south west, further substantiates the rationale for considering a replacement for the current Vice-President.