2027: Governors break ranks as godfatherism loses grip on Nigeria’s power game

As preparations for the 2027 general elections gradually gather momentum, Nigeria’s political space is becoming increasingly volatile. Party defections, internal crises within major opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and others, alongside emerging cracks within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), now dominate national discourse.

Beyond these familiar fault lines, however, a deeper political shift is drawing growing public attention: the steady erosion of political godfatherism.

From 2023 till date, a recurring but increasingly bold pattern has emerged across the country. Governors who ascended to power through the influence, resources and political machinery of powerful benefactors are now openly breaking ranks with those same godfathers.

Once-installed protégés are asserting independence, often at significant political and institutional cost.

Kano Crisis: Yusuf vs Kwankwaso

One of the most striking examples is unfolding in Kano State, where relations between Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf and his political mentor, former governor and NNPP national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, have deteriorated sharply.

The crisis centres on reports that Governor Yusuf is planning to defect from the NNPP to the APC. Kwankwaso is said to have strongly opposed the move, reportedly insisting that Yusuf would not join forces with APC chieftain and former governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, with his blessing.

Despite this resistance, political insiders claim that arrangements to receive Yusuf into the APC are already far advanced, with January 12 reportedly pencilled down as the decisive date. Observers have expressed surprise at the speed and intensity of the fallout, particularly given Yusuf’s long-standing loyalty to Kwankwaso.

The rift has spilled into the public arena, with supporters of both camps engaging in daily exchanges on social media. It has also fractured Kano’s political structure, as commissioners, local government chairmen and lawmakers at both state and federal levels openly align with either camp.

The crisis has already produced casualties within the NNPP. The party’s state chairman, Hashimu Dungurawa, believed to be loyal to Kwankwaso, was removed and replaced with Abdullahi Abiya, a known ally of Governor Yusuf.

Kano State Commissioner for Information, Comrade Ibrahim Abdullahi Waiya, described a potential defection by Yusuf to the APC as “a blessing” for the state.

“Kano has lost a lot because we are not in the ruling party. Many federal projects meant for the state are not coming due to party differences. If the governor moves, it will be for the good of Kano. We only pray that Allah reconciles Governor Abba Yusuf and his political leader, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso,” Waiya said.

While Yusuf remains officially in the NNPP, analysts believe his decision is only a matter of time, even as Kwankwaso’s camp is reportedly gearing up for a major political showdown ahead of 2027.

Kaduna: El-Rufai and Uba Sani Fallout

A similar struggle has played out in Kaduna State between former governor Nasir El-Rufai and his successor, Governor Uba Sani.

Tensions became public in early 2024 when Uba Sani accused El-Rufai of leaving the state in deep financial distress, alleging that Kaduna was struggling to meet salary obligations.

El-Rufai strongly denied the claims, but the crisis escalated when the Kaduna State House of Assembly accused his administration of financial impropriety involving contract funds. Lawmakers subsequently directed anti-graft agencies to investigate El-Rufai’s former chief of staff and former commissioner for finance.

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While El-Rufai has since defected to the ADC, Uba Sani remains in the APC, setting the stage for a potential political showdown in 2027.

Jigawa: Quiet Tensions, Brewing Storm

In Jigawa State, political observers also point to a growing rift between Governor Umar Namadi and his predecessor, former governor and current minister, Badaru Abubakar. Although the disagreement has remained largely subdued, insiders say relations between both camps are increasingly strained.

A political analyst from the state, Yusuf Ahmed, said that the situation could escalate as 2027 approaches.

“It will be a clash of the titans as preparations for 2027 begin. All is not well between the governor and the former governor,” he said.

Rivers: Wike and Fubara Power Struggle

Perhaps the most dramatic godfather-protégé crisis is in Rivers State, where the conflict between former governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and his successor, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, spiralled into a full-blown confrontation.

The crisis engulfed the State House of Assembly and local government councils, forcing Governor Fubara to back down and seek reconciliation after his suspension for six months and the appointment of an acting administrator. Despite the apparent truce, political undercurrents suggest the conflict is far from resolved.

In a bid to stabilise his position, Fubara defected to the ruling APC. However, recent actions by both leaders indicate lingering instability. Wike has openly declared himself the sole leader of Rivers politics, with his body language suggesting he is already positioning another candidate for the 2027 elections.

Lawmakers loyal to the FCT minister have also initiated impeachment moves against the governor.

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Godfather-protégé clashes are not new in Nigeria. In Kano, the ideological alliance between Malam Aminu Kano and Governor Abubakar Rimi collapsed in 1982, forcing Rimi out of the PRP. He later contested against his former mentor but lost to a PRP candidate backed by Aminu Kano.

In Oyo State, the late political strongman Lamidi Adedibu orchestrated the impeachment of Governor Rashidi Ladoja in 2006 after their fallout. Similar crises have shaped politics in Sokoto, involving figures such as Attahiru Bafarawa, Aliyu Wamakko, Yariman Bakura and Mahmud Shinkafi.

Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a political scientist at Bayero University, Kano, told DAILY POST that godfatherism has no place in a true democracy.

“Democracy has nothing to do with godfathers. This practice thrives mainly in Nigeria. Godfathers support candidates for personal gain, not public interest, and that is why these arrangements always collapse,” he said.

According to him, the decline of godfatherism is healthy for democracy, as it allows elected leaders to govern without undue interference.

Not everyone agrees. Jigawa PDP spokesperson, Umar Kyari, insists godfatherism remains unavoidable in Nigerian politics.

“In Nigeria, politics cannot work without a godfather who mentors and introduces you into the system. The problem begins when relationships lack trust and sincerity,” he argued, adding that godfathers should step back after elections.

Similarly, Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil, ADC governorship candidate in Kano during the 2023 elections, said many politicians lack the capacity to succeed without strong backing.

“Some people cannot stand on their own. Their success depends on guidance and support,” he said, describing betrayal of one’s godfather as morally wrong.

On Kano politics, Khalil was blunt: “Without Kwankwaso, Abba Yusuf would not have become governor. Anyone who voted for Abba did so because of Kwankwaso.”

As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 elections, analysts expect more confrontations between political godfathers and their once-loyal protégés across party lines. Whether this trend signals the end of godfatherism or merely a reshaping of old power structures remains uncertain.

What is clear, however, is that loyalty is no longer guaranteed, and political authority is increasingly contested.